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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -

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disintermedation

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disintermedation Last updated on March 20, 1999

Finance Physics:

Finance Physics:

There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .

The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )

http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html

The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.

The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.

http://concordcoalition.org/

THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"

Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.

It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.

The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive.

Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people.

For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.

The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.

Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.

The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor.

Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.

The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods.

Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.

The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.

They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.

They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. I

"Most countries continue to face heavy tax burdens and high debt stocks and are ill-prepared to deal with the coming demographic shock from aging populations," the report said.

http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/09/imf-europe A huge U.S. trade deficit could turn into a serious problem for the American economy if foreigners were to decide suddenly to dump dollar-denominated assets, which could push the U.S. currency down sharply and trigger steep declines in U.S. stock and bond markets http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/08/news-world-economy Referring to the various threats, the IMF said, "

The possibility that these imbalances may unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion." As for oil, the IMF said oil prices are about 20 percent higher than the IMF had assumed in its economic forecast, an increase of $5 a barrel. It estimated this should add $40 billion over a year's time to the oil import bills of industrial countries and cut their economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.

Of course, market prices are the result of foggy feeling, mass psychology called perceptions. BUT, over the longer run, basic economic principles and the laws of social physics will "correct" the difference between false perceptions and a harder reality.

In the

current context the following will happen - the only question is when:

1.)

The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:

2.) Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar securities have to pay;

3.)

The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market "correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.

We're moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.

The theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections between utility network computers.

Like the human brain, the

internet's packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken into short message blocks now called

"packets,"

each containing its own routing information,

like a DNA molecule, and able to replicate itself correctly whenever a transmission error occurred. With many additions and permutations, his original design is today termed the Internet, click here for the emerging history

of the 21st century.

Something missing:

An astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.

Most people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a fifty mile range.

Their perceptions are defined within what is called a tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly established as a norm.

The irrational base of human understanding is clearly demonstrated by politics and commercials.

NOW as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little understood as the physical.

The new world order - lacks a vision or social psychological foundation. ]

The technology itself is revolutionary.

The global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.

The leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional, mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos - morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive of the existing order.

STOCK Watch: up 25 % since Aug. 5th user "wiredbrain", password "synergy"

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Use the Codes to Wiredbrain

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The MONEY MACHINE tells the future !

What's Next

Notes and comments

GLOBEX PRICES AS OF NOW

key 200 day support level.

GOING DOWN GOING UP look at this....

Almost EXACT, went to 856 then UP --Visit

The MONEY MACHINE tells the future !

-

SUPPORT AT 860

http://www.stocksite.com/ MARKET MONITOR

Wall Street Directory EVERYTHING IN ONE PLACE!

Fundamentals:

Keeping Track:

It’s difficult keeping track of individual stocks when the market make large moves.

There are several markets ( variables ) that intervene in the action of stocks. First, global markets, influenced by interest rates, currencies, and relative price safety factors; Second, the buying and selling of index options and futures that make movements bigger than they would be otherwise, and only third; the acctual value and future of companies and the industry they represent.

Looking back I have compared prices on Nov 5th with today, Nov. 18th. Most of the portfolio held rather well.

There was a difference between selling stocks that drop 3% on stop loss orders and buy and hold. Buy and hold left the value of the portfolio up 14 % ( down from 20% ), sell and buy when the S&P hit 860 gave a total return of 18 % ( down from 20 ) doesn’t sound like much, but 3/16 = 19 % better and we were protected from a bigger drop.

The use of options more than covered the down side with a net cash gain ( 500% on at risk capital ) which we are now looking to invest. ( should have done more )

Almost all the net gain are in the satellite companies we bought in August ( up over 50 % ) the rest has been up and down and average 10 %. Real gains comes from "industry of the future", the IBM, Microsoft, growth companies.

The global communications industry is such a growth sector and the owners of satellites and broadband / Wideband will be the industrial leaders in a few years. How the others, cable companies, telephone, Web-TV, equipment and network companies come out is less than clear. That leaves DGII (DIGI International), DIGI ( DSC Communications), GSTRE (Globalstar), IRIDE ( Iridium), MOT, LOR, SPOT, OMPT, SAT, TGO, TRW, Hughes, WCOM, DT, ERICY, ALA, Philips, CQ, ORBI, ONSI, SAT and some companies that will benefit for global services on a vast scale - Netscape ( NSCP ), Oracle, Excite (XCIT), Intel ( INTC), the noise group Sun Microsystems, IBM.

PURE

• DIGI, 28 13/32
• GSTRF,40 7/8
• IRIDF,40 1/2
• ORBI, 22 5/8
• SPOT,32 5/8 ( PanAm )
• SAT,29 7/16 ( Asia Sat )
• LOR 17 5/8 ( Lorel Sat )
• TGO 31 7/8 (teleGlobe)
• DCDT ADC communications
• CIEN Ciena
• GVIL Global Village Communications

The core of communications is the base of the

next revolution. Satellites connected to

earth stations with super broadband wireless and cable connecting to "smart universal modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s" for network computers and universal communications utilities including TV.

ZDNET

The way the core of the computer - telecommunications market is going is at the

Watch the keynote by MCI WorldCom’s

John Sidgmore.

but not clear to most reporters and observers. This is one way to visualize what is happening.

There are a new products call Web-TV, the network computer, advanced note books with cell phone built in, and important advances in satellite communications, Wideband / Broadband, cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s and copper wire telephone services.

Imagine you have a black box which provides universal communications services: video telephone, Internet, fax, e-mail, cable TV, regular digital TV, CD music and games, had digital storage in Zig-a-bites, and wireless modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) in 10 Meg-bits per second or better.

The question is who is the Service Provider ?

Imagine companies, schools, homes where instead of millions of PC the same black box provides all the applications, data banks, on-site and computer home workers at their work stations.

The applications programs are downloaded with the data. A 10 Mb program takes 1 seconds to down load the functions being used at that moment.

The program "runs" on the CPU of the black box, not time share terminal, but is fully integrated with the wide area network and the Internet. Who provides the software, systems management, data storage, and where is the server ?

Watch the keynote by MCI WorldCom’s

John Sidgmore.

/monday.html">Bill Gates keynote at

Watch the keynote by MCI WorldCom’s

John Sidgmore.

presentation of NT 5 + uses a NC ( Network Computer ) he po-poed last year.

The next step is from LAN ( local networks ) to the internet. He talks PC but programs NC for all the reasons as a low cost "utility" device Larry of Oracle said last year.

It could be the satellite companies who own the high ground and the critical link in the whole system.

There is the fight between Alcatel Alsthom 1/8ALSF.CN 3/8's Skybridge and Motorola's Celestri to get bands to develop and compete against Microsoft's Teledesic, which is backed by Boeing (BA.N).

These become the first global telephone ( tele-communications ) company with direct services to companies, and local service providers. MCI-World Com -BT- ATT - DT -Sprint have to get into the Satellite Internet business FAST or be replaced.

They are behind using analog rather than digital systems they should have made universal 20 years ago.

I don’t see much future for WIRE including cable after 2000, and the growth markets are in China,

The USS -was, Eastern Europe, Latin America, which add up to double the number of users and four times the amount traffic every 18 months at half the cost per unit. "

For technology, analysts said the trend within Asia could move towards the personal computer as a cheaper, commonly available product.

"Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong will probably lead the way as far as futuristic technology into the next millennium, but I wouldn't count out very strong IT investments in China," said Brian Kornegay, a senior personal computer analyst at IDC. "

The GREAT industrial companies of the next century will be tele-communications with a vast variety of "services", financial, travel, marketing of goods, retail sales, educational, all global all around us. This is the issue

Nadar and the NOISE group are all about.

In all, the three plan to launch several hundred satellites in 2001 and 2002.

The three projects, which would offer high-speed multi- media services via huge networks of satellites, require access to a large amount of radio frequency spectrum.

These connections make possible the Network

Computer the next generation of "smart" terminals that act as telephones, e-mail, PCs, business shops and services.

Alcatel Alsthom 1/8ALSF.CN 3/8's Skybridge and Motorola's Celestri to get bands to develop and compete against Microsoft's Teledesic, which is backed by Boeing (BA.N). In all, the three plan to launch several hundred satellites in 2001 and 2002.

The three projects, which would offer high-speed multi- media services via huge networks of satellites, require access to a large amount of radio frequency spectrum.

These connections make possible the Network

Computer the next generation of "smart" terminals that act as telephones, e-mail, PCs, business shops and services.

User wiredbrain password synergy

http://www.techweb.com/investor/feed/stockRes.cgi

dailystocks most excellent information

The report illustrates just how dominant the computer sector of the economy has become as technology has become increasingly advanced. .. For example, the study found that the average wages of those who provide high-tech services are, in Kazmierczak's words, "phenomenal," with high-tech employees earning 73 percent more, on average, than private-sector employees. Providers of software services in particular, he said, are finding current economic trends to be extremely favorable

Ericsson Hosting Internet & Wideband Wireless Conference

Two-Day San Francisco Event Includes Internet Partners Discussing

Convergence Strategies Third-Generation Wideband Wireless Multimedia mobile systems.

This technology, to debut in some world regions in the year 2000, will enable wireless phones/terminals to deliver not only voice, but also full-motion video, and data-intensive information such as real-time Internet access.

There is somewhere around a 37 Trillion Gross Global Product (GGP see

futures.htm ) and somewhere around the same amount in capital. Large pools of capital have built up in banks, insurance companies, pension funds, corporate treasuries, and in personal savings. About 10 % or 4 trillion dollars is relatively liquid and under "professional management". Most of these funds seek safe reasonable returns in public and private bonds, stocks, real estate and direct commercial investments. Any one of the global markets can be looked at as a commodity and blocks of stocks bought and sold in bulk. Now comes the hard part.

Since various investment packages of stocks and bonds, in various currencies, can be looked at for their relative return and risk, options can be bought and sold to cover the risk. Since 75 % of the capital of US stocks are in the S&P 500, future options ( puts and calls) can limit the risk of these investments, currency options protect the relative value of the US dollar and interest rate futures the value of bonds. Since billions of dollars can be traded in seconds the goal is to move fast and freely across markets to get the best returns and defend against loss of capital.

The synergy of this global system ( the whole is more than the sum of the parts ) create some complex interactions described as

Dissipative Structures.

These patterns of non-linear
forms created in systems far from equilibrium such as Benard cells, tornados,
lasers and living things such as the U.S. Congress. ( Llya Prigogine). While global trade in stocks and bonds as commodities has created vast pools of liquid capital it can become unstable as it has in South East Asia and have a ripple effect around the world. No central bank can control or even understand what is going on. A single trader can cause the loss of billions, the fall of whole banks or investment pools.

To understand the impact of large institutional trans-market trading one has to penetrate the logic of their strategies. (

AltaVista Search ) Part of the strategy is reflective of what other players are doing. It this sense it becomes a game. Fractional differences in exchange rates, interest rates and stock prices set the game in motion. Secondary players such as mutual fund managers, stock brokers, and third level investors are often caught in the winds of global financial forces they can't understand.

The press is almost complete hopeless and useless. Academic economics is using the wrong model and can't grasp the biological interactions using the old linear industrial equations that depend on a theoretical "equilibrium" that does not exist. Biological system do not seek "rest = death" but growth and infiltration of niches and whatever opportunities are offered by the environment. Biological systems are in many codependent relationships, living systems are not battle ships at sea but an organic soup tending toward chaos.

For the investor global markets means they have to be prepared to use options, to sell and buy on a active basis. Investors are sometimes treated as children who sell low due to fear and panic and buy high being the last to jump on board.

The old 'buy and hold' is really dumb.

The formula for success:

The start of a Bear Market ?

Return on Investments:

The base rate is under 6 % and long term ( 30 year bonds ) at 6.15 %.

The laws of physics and economics suggest that other investments will trend to this base rate.
If someone is making more money others should get into the business until the field is crowded and the extra bonus disappears.

There are three barriers to entry which become the laws of higher returns. A long term higher rate of return, such as 11 % on stocks, or 20 % in technologies, are due to:

First Law, Cartel or monopoly prices - For a century big business in the USA was dominated by leading firms; General Motors set up by Dupont, Edison and General Electric, Bush in beer, American Tobacco, Borden, General Foods, etc.. International competition makes it more difficult to get an extraordinary rate of return because of raw market power. Microsoft is both a cartel and benefits from the second and third laws-

Second Law: Psychological attachments or brand names - you can sell carbonated flavored sugar water for 1000 x cost, $16 sneaker for $80, ( Nike has some third law - technology ) smart advertising and marketing including buying shelf space; American Brands is now getting competition from European firms and store brands. Drugs are a special case of "brand" bonus.

Third Law: Technology and innovation can give a short term advantage until others "catch-on".

Some basic rates:

LIBOR NOV97 1- 94.335 ( discount rate) Pay 94.3 cents for $1.00 a year from now.

The London Inter-bank loan Rate 1- rate = 5.66 % is the global base rate of return. Banks can borrow at this rate ( wholesale ) and loan (retail ) or from the FED FUND NOV97 94.48P 5.52 % from the US Fed. If interest rates go up it's bad for stocks and business but controls inflation if interest rates go down there is a 2.5 x greater increase in the money supply because of the multiplier effect.

EURO $ DEC97 1- 94.20 -2.5 or 5.8 % is the base cost/return on money for other big business and large instutions. When the bond prices go down the rate goes up ( -2.5 basis points = + .0025 % 100 = 1 %) With money moving from stocks to bonds, bond prices should go up and interest rates should go down. A 6 % bond at 100 pays 6 % at 105 less at 95 more than the face rate.

D-MARK DEC97 1 / .5875 +61 = 1.70 Mark to the dollar (down) higher interest rates

J-YEN DEC97 1/ .8092 = 123.578 -69 which is up for dollar

SWISS FR DEC97 1 / .7220 +111 1.38 Fr to the dollar (down) flight to safety

B-POUND DEC97 1 / 1.6902 +28 = .59 pence to one dollar (down) higher rates

So money is moving from the US to bonds in these countries.

S&P 500 DEC97 930.50 +1170 so stock futures are down

MMI FUT DEC97 792.50A -610 we don't think it's time to buy until these trends change.

Just follow

WIREDBRAIN

Technical Analysis:

Market is stuck in a trading range from 860 to 980:

When it goes below 920 the next "support" level is at 880 860 etc. This is why it's important to have stop loss - but when the "stop loss" orders begin to hit it drags the market down more.

The OEX index options short positions will more than cover any loss on the stock long positions, at 876.98 - 60

The dead cat bounce or bungie jumps are due to CYA reactions.

TUESDAY:

CLOSE OUT SHORT POSITIONS AT OPEN AND BUY Stocks after 860 -

BUY Bonds and the dollar is strong - because money is flowing into US bonds and stocks

Ready to go the other way, sell the put and buy the call.

OEX down from 930: call down to 9 (+14 ): put up to $2,825 now is $13,400: ( + 106 ) 1 point = $ 100 S & P 100 INDEX 134 + 57 7/ 8 (.OEWXF )

STOCK Watch: up 25 % since Aug. 5th user "wiredbrain", password "synergy"

Sell Dec 930 call .oewlf at 33 3/8 or buy Dec 930 Put .oewxf at 28 1/4

PORTFOLIO FOR wiredbrain - wiredbrain password "plasticdog77" is really good -

The fine art of

chart reading:

The top ( where people sell ) at S&P 500

980

, 970, 960 and start buying at below

920 the float level

,

860 is support where more people buy

Stock picks:

ERICY,

ATI,

NXTL, ONSI,

ORBI,

OMPT,

CIEN

EXCITE CUSTOM NEWS Following closely to buy close to bottom:

ALA,

ATEL, ATI,

ASND,

ATHM,

CQ new, CVUS, HLIT,

PRMS new, STCL, TCOMA, TCOMB, WSTL

TCI's Digital Cable to Make Full Package of Your Choice TV Available

Ericsson Hosting Internet & Wideband Wireless Conference

Two-Day San Francisco Event Includes Internet Partners Discussing

Convergence Strategies Third-Generation Wideband Wireless Multimedia mobile systems.

This technology, to debut in some world regions in the year 2000, will enable wireless phones/terminals to deliver not only voice, but also full-motion video, and data-intensive information such as real-time Internet access.

NEW YORK, Nov. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Ericsson today announced that it will hold a Convergence Conference Nov. 11+12, 1997, at the Clift Hotel in San Francisco. Addressing Ericsson's Internet initiatives and strategies, and its technology for

Third-Generation digital Wideband Wireless Multimedia systems, the conference features executives from Ericsson and leading computer and Internet companies.

Network Interoperability Alliance "NIA" Sponsors Third Interoperability Test, Nov. 10-21, 1997

The Network Interoperability Alliance (NIA) will conduct its third and largest

interoperability test to date Nov. 10-21, 1997, continuing the group's effort to help organizations

design and deploy large, diverse multivendor networks.

The new test will focus on interoperability of a core network using

Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) Private Network-to-Network Interface protocol (PNNI).

The NIA's recently-formed customer panel, which is comprised of networking managers and administrators from seven end-user companies across a range of industries and markets, provided input for the test.

The test will be held at the University of New Hampshire's interoperability Lab and monitored by

The Tolly Group, a strategic consulting and independent testing organization.

Networking equipment from 10 companies will participate in the test, making it the largest to date both in terms of numbers of participants and network devices.

NIA members Bay Networks, First Virtual Corporation, IBM, General DataComm Industries Inc., 3Com, and Xylan, as well as FORE Systems Inc., Interphase Corporation and Olicom will participate in the test. For the first time, the NIA will be including equipment manufactured by Cisco Systems Inc. in the testbed. Cisco did not respond to NIA's invitation to participate in the test.

NIA testing is unique in several ways. Rather than measuring performance of a single networking device,

NIA testing is conducted at a system level for connectivity and interoperability of both systems and application throughput. Specifically, NIA tests involve real-world applications running over a

network combining multiple technologies and products from numerous vendors. For example, the November test will involve running several applications, including a live video collaboration application using equipment from First Virtual Corporation.

Your Choice TV to be Featured in TCI's Full HITS Lineup

PAD Inc. is traded through the TCI Group, the Liberty Media Group and the TCI Ventures Group Common Stocks. TCI Group is traded on the National Market tier of

The Nasdaq Stock Market (Nasdaq) with Series A and Series B TCI Group Common Stock, under the symbols of TCOMA and TCOMB, respectively. TCI Ventures Group is traded on Nasdaq, with Series A and Series B TCI Ventures Group Common Stock, under the symbols TCIVA and TCIVB, respectively. In addition, the Company's Class B 6% Cumulative Redeemable Exchangeable Junior Preferred Stock is traded on Nasdaq under the symbol TCOMP. Liberty Media Group is traded on Nasdaq with Series A and Series B Common Stock, under the symbols of LBTYA and LBTYB, respectively. Tele- Communications International, Inc., which is traded on Nasdaq under the symbol TINTA, is attributed to the TCI Ventures Group. TCI Communications, Inc., the Company's domestic communications subsidiary, trades its Cumulative Exchangeable Preferred Stock, Series A on Nasdaq under the symbol TCICP, its 8.72% Trust Originated Preferred Securities on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol TFI/pr and its 10% and 9.72% Trust Preferred Securities on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbols TFII and TFIV, respectively.

ALCATEL (

ALA) WINS TELEKOM MALAYSIA ATM BACKBONE PROJECT KUALA LUMPUR - Alcatel Network Systems Malaysia, the local telecoms unit of Alcatel Alsthom, will install a nationwide Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) backbone for Telekom Malaysia.

The network will include multigigabits per second nodes and will support the most sophisticated multimedia applications, with several switches to be installed in the Multimedia Super Corridor, Alcatel said in a statement. Alcatel did not disclose the value of the contract.

TRES, TSCP, SCRM,

CSCO,

SEE PORTFOLIO USER "WIREDBRAIN" PASSWORD "SYNERGY" AT THE BOTTOM OF

http://quicken.excite.com/investments/portfolio/

Today (Monday Oct 27th ) maybe a

sell calls day

buy puts-

Asia and Europe down (

need to make money in DOWN markets )

OEX down from 930: call from 3337.50 down to $ 1000 (+13 ): put from $2825 up to $ 7600 : ( + 48 ) 1 point = $ 100

Sell Dec 930 call .oewlf at 33 3/8 or buy Dec 930 Put .oewxf at 28 1/4

Behind the stocks of the future:

"Unequaled speed, reliability and advanced applications such as full, rich streaming audio and video are what this market has been clamoring for. This is the platform that brings the Web to life." MediaOne, the nation's leading broadband services company Tuesday launched Los Angeles' fastest Internet service for the home, called

MediaOne Express.

Intel Signs Three

Cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) Deals:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Intel said that it has signed pacts with three companies, including the At Home Network, to accelerate the use of high-speed cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s and make them easier to install for consumers.

The

At Home network, (

ATHM) based in Redwood City, California, develops a high-speed service for residences and business for fast access to the Internet and other interactive services.

Intel also said the companies would work with networking giant

Cisco Systems (

CSCO

) to develop an easy-to-install external cable targeted to consumers.

In the third agreement, Intel and the

CableLabs research consortium agreed to work together to draft new specifications to enable cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s to connect to personal computers through external ports, for easier installation and use.

Dataquest(R) forecasts that over 70 percent of all PCs shipped in 1997, and virtually all in 1998, will be USB capable.

The parties intend to focus on the development and deployment of

consumer-installable, DOCSIS (Data Over Cable Service Specification) compliant external cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s using the

Universal Serial Bus (USB) standard. Cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s will provide consumers with high-bandwidth connections to PCs that are typically 100 times faster than today's fastest 56k telephone modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s.

The faster connection allows high-speed Internet access and will enable new classes of broadband services and applications for consumers.

The new USB approach to cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) design will allow easy consumer installation and configuration using the "plug-and-play" features of USB.

REPORT on STOCK PICKS

This is your entry point to access different pages within your Virtual Office.

OPEN HOUSE Visit Netscapes Virtual Office

at http://www.wiredbrain.net/

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Networks.htm about the China Connections.

Lugar Plan To Replace the Income Tax With A National Sales Tax

Since other countries use the VAT, exports are taxed less ( exports don't pay VAT ) and imports are TAXED more. they pay the VAT.

The issue is to transfer social overhead costs off exports and onto imports. DO AWAY WITH THE IRS ! If you want to protect American Jobs, go for tax reform and VAT or sales tax, NOT the stupid protectionism, defensive, anti-foreign, nationalist slogans that make everyone worse off. This should be supported by the labor unions, Pat B. on the right and parts of the democratic party on the left who are part of the labor effort to control imports of better and cheaper goods which hold down inflation.

Once More From the TOP:

It's about time !

The main line press has caught-on to the power of the internet ? What wiredbrain and others ( mainly Netscape, Oracle, ( considered to be a source of wise counsel or prophetic opinions. b. An authoritative or wise statement or prediction ) IBM, SunMicrosystems and the NOISE group ) have been talking about since Netscape 1.0 and WINS connections ( 1995) - the virtual office and the Network Computer has now arrived in the PC world.

"

The new concept ( only to PC world ) goes by a variety of names: instant Web office; virtual office; instant intranet; Web tone; Internet dial tone; and so on.

The idea is to provide everything a user needs on a central server. Users can then access that server over the Internet with just a terminal and a phone line.

Then they "rent" Internet and intranet applications for as little as $10 to $20 per person per month. (That's a fraction of the per-user cost of an in-house intranet.)"

and a box that cost 10 % of a PC work station ( $500 vs. $5,000 ) and doesn't crash, doesn't need systems managers, and doesn't require constant upgrades but does need bandwidth.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1997

Instant Intranets Just Stage One in Emerging Market Struggle

Jesse Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk

What is clear but not said is this is the end of the Age of the PC. First the main frame, then the PC now the NC -

There is now a immense industry we can call

IT “INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY”.

IT now represents the critical modern enterprise growing to be a quarter of all economic activity.

IT is a greater engine for growth than railroads in the 19th century, oil and chemical industries in the first half of this century. IT is equal to the auto industry, which reached 25 % in the 1950s. “IT” like the auto industry includes the hardware ( the computer or car), the infrastructure, (communications and networks or the roads) the energy ( software or oil ) the services, ( consultants and staff or Gas Stations ) and parts ( modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s, drives, or car radios ). IT includes the computers ( the car ), the roads ( the telecom business ), services ( software ) and the social educational infrastructure.

IT provides the web of life for modern enterprise - design, production, distribution, sales, of goods and services. IT is the growth industry and in labor market there are millions of new jobs and additional people needed world wide.

Unlike the auto industry the IT business evolves quickly. New hardware computers and chips, new methods of communications, new applications evolve quickly. IT is quickly becoming one unified, highly complex living system on a global basis.

The whole is more than the sum of the parts - synergy that comes from elaborate interactions.

There are critical “flash point” - global telcom systems based on satellites connected to earth stations that can use telephone lines including new high bandwidth technologies, optic fiber, wireless broadband, and cable connections.

The high bandwidth connections use improved modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s to provide support for networks.

These new networks provide what have been called telephones, television, personal computers, and something new - beyond what now are common utilities.

The common base system is the “browser”, which will provide all of the application in Java type objects - in a Video User Interface (VUI) using chips that can handle digital TV and Digital Hard Drives for storage - all as parts of the new super modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s.

IT is why the DOJ Microsoft case is important. What was called the “operation system” OS now becomes VUI, an interface between a “terminal” ( telephone, TV, and PC = NC ) and a communications media.

The interface uses program “packets” as well as content “packets” the

operational software is contained within the data.

The difference between program and content no longer is significant. With bandwidth the “word processor” is attached to the files and comes as an instant updated package at the moment of use. This is Netscape’s, Oracle and others “vision” and the real challenge to Microsoft. Now the hard part... which companies will be winners, who has

IT... who has the "catch-on" factor ?

Berst Alert FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1997

Bandwidth Progress Report

STOCK PICKS and Information:

and

WIREDBRAIN INVESTMENT CLUB:

AUGUST picks USER wiredbrain PASSWORD synergy

We start with $1000.00 units in packages of about $250,000 with about a dozen members who share a common interest and knowledge, computers, telecommunications, wireless et al.

The model we started in Aug. on satellites a $1,000 unit would be $1,216.42 on stocksite ( user wiredbrain, password "synergy") and $1224.42 on

my.excite. We are looking for a on-line broker. Members can discuss and make recommendations on the portfolio and buy in or out at anytime. Money goes directly to the broker but we may need some kind of payment agent. Fee is 10 % of gain, or $ 21 or $ 22 on the example above when sold or taken out every 60 days, 10 % of $81,000 profit on stocksite or $ 59,605 on excite. after 60 days, then start the profit count anew from that position. An options fund could gain or lose a lot X100 more.

REPORT on STOCK PICKS

Take the money and Run !

We would have lost money in the down market except for the short position in Microsoft and the Index

options

below; We also closed out the winners ( it's important to have high and low stops ) before they took a dive. ( Closed positions don't show in the report structure I have, nor does cash, options or short positions )

Remember the market is

OVER Valued by 25 % so can drop several 1000 points on the DJ.. Earning/Price Ratios To see what to do NOW Click on :

OEX down from 930: call down to 10 (+13 ): put up to

134:

( + 106 ) 1 point = $ 100 S & P 100 INDEX 134 + 57 7/ 8 (.OEWXF )

.

What Next ?

PUT VALUES

RATHER HIGH

.SXBKL sold at 31 1/2 ($ 3150.00 ) now at 16 3/4 ( $ 1675 ) for a gain of $1475or 47 % .sxbwl bought at $1950 ( 19 1/2) now $2925 ( 29 1/4 ) gain of $ 975 or 50 % --

.oewwe bought at 5 1/4 ( $525 ) Thurs. now 37 1/2 ( $ 3750 ) gain of $ 3,225 or % 600 -- sell .oewkn 9 3/4 now 3 1/8 gain of 6 + or 2/3 = 66 %

The

laws of large numbers suggest that

if the market was a lot of small actors acting independently a 25 % drop in a stock, in a few hours, would be a rare event BUT it's not composed of small actors but big actors that act alike. First the brokerage companies buy low for inventory and sell high to clients, second institutional investors are part of "big" clubs with insurance companies and the mutual fund managers that use options to protect positions and make money in both directions. That's why you need $250,000 in about 20 stocks with no more than 10 % in any one basket. AND you need to balance your long and short positions and use a few

options.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17, 1997
Why Bill Gates Wants to Give You a Cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )
Jesse Berst, Editorial Director
ZDNet AnchorDesk
Microsoft appears poised -- once again -- to throw big money at this latest gleam in Bill's eye. Reports say
the software giant may invest as much as a billion dollars in

TCI, the largest cable-system operator in the
U.S.

The

Razor and the blades:

The point Jesse keeps missing is that connections are the gateway to the

applications.

The core issues are who benefits ( what companies) and who owns the backbone of the system - satellites, wireless, high bandwith telephone, direct broadcast AND the billions of new connections in other parts of the

world. This site explores the many aspects of this true IT (

information technology ) revolution.

To start at the

beginning:

"In this emerging world of boundless

bandwidth, companies will prevail only by transcending the folklore of scarcity and embracing the full promise of the digital dawn." George Gilder

Break the Bandwidth Barrier

"New high-speed modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s that operate over cable

TV networks (

wireless broadband and direct broadcast ) and ordinary phone lines will give an unprecedented amount of affordable

bandwidth to everyone.

The mythical system described (sic) is about 100 times faster than today's PCs at one-hundredth the cost, and that's approximately the price/performance advantage that a new generation of broadband modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s will deliver over existing phone lines and cable

TV networks. Compared to the latest analog modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s, it's a quantum leap in affordable bandwidth that spans two orders of magnitude for about one-hundredth the cost of a T1 dedicated phone line. Never before in the history of computing has there been such a jump. Microprocessors grow about twice as powerful only every 18 months, and analog modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s are only about 10 times faster than they were 20 years ago. "

Nonetheless, the immediate result of the new generation of modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s will be Internet access at broadband speeds of 1 to 5 Mbps for less than $40 a month.

The long-term impact is an open question. At a minimum, broadband modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s will shatter the boundaries between local and remote network resources, bringing the Internet and the World Wide Web as near to your PC as a LAN server. Webmasters will be able to build spectacular multimedia Web sites. Businesses and schools will inexpensively link their remote LANs into high-speed WANs without leasing expensive dedicated phone lines (see the figure "Building a WAN with Cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s"). Videoconferencing could finally become real. "

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