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Continued on - please let me know about errors ! Some of these pages date back up to 10 years ( 1992 ) and have been through many editors and transfers. News about what's happening and for updates use GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch -

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Disintermediation

Disintermediation

Disintermediation Last updated on March 20, 1999

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Finance Physics:

Of course, market prices are the result of foggy feeling, mass psychology called perceptions. BUT, over the longer run, basic economic principles and the laws of social physics will "correct" the difference between false perceptions and a harder reality.
In the
current context the following will happen - the only question is when:
1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:
2.) Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar securities have to pay;
3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market "correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative stocks.
We're moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections between utility network computers.

Like the human brain, the
internet's packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken into short message blocks now called
"packets,"
each containing its own routing information,
like a DNA molecule, and able to replicate itself correctly whenever a transmission error occurred. With many additions and permutations, his original design is today termed the Internet, click here for the emerging history
of the 21st century.
Key word "infrastructure"
http://www.wiredbrain.net/information.htm

There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/

THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"

Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits. Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.
Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.
The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men. In the latest poll from the Pew Research Cent
http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/09/imf-europe A huge U.S. trade deficit could turn into a serious problem for the American economy if foreigners were to decide suddenly to dump dollar-denominated assets, which could push the U.S. currency down sharply and trigger steep declines in U.S. stock and bond markets http://news.excite.com/news/ap/000919/08/news-world-economy Referring to the various threats, the IMF said, "
The possibility that these imbalances may unwind in a disorderly fashion remains a risk to the global expansion." As for oil, the IMF said oil prices are about 20 percent higher than the IMF had assumed in its economic forecast, an increase of $5 a barrel. It estimated this should add $40 billion over a year's time to the oil import bills of industrial countries and cut their economic growth by 0.2 percentage points.

All Boiled down on CONVERGENCE AOL: the super market of the world

What does AOL Time Warner ( and Wal-Mart, & some Computer terminal company and cable modem or broadband connection ) mean for the future of global society ? What is the image they pursue ?
http://www.wiredbrain.net/image.htm

CONVERGENCE: Interactive television, combining audio telephone, video conference and cable or satellite TV, video on demand, all designed to advertise and sell on the spot all kinds of good and services.

What is called "entertainment" on television is different from plays, or movies or theme parks or games or sports because the role of "content" is only to attract an audience so they can be sold something.
The job of television is sales - not news or information or entertainment which are only provided so people watch and can be sold something.
The role of AOL / Time Warner will be not only to sell others goods but direct sales.
Their dream is the click and buy advantages of two way communications.

In the process cable or other broadband can replace a good share of long distance voice, video rentals, VPN virtual private networks, if and only if, the broadband connections really works then personal computers become network devices or
http://www.wiredbrain.net/NEXUM.htm a multipurpose communications and entertainment console.

AOL Time Warner believe that whatever the method for the broadband connections they will control the content.
The contact rates - for cable, telephone, Internet and video on demand provide cash flows that support the capital for improved networks and on-line sales provide the profits.

It's not only that you can buy your tooth paste from the commercial ( click here to add it to your Wal-mart order ) but you might get free samples for filling out forms. You can add with a click to your grocery list. People really will buy travel deals, change banks or brokers, buy records after getting MP3 samples, select household gadgets, buy gifts, use auctions, even pick appliances and cars.
They will seek better mortgage and insurance rates, look for a new house, and a thousand other products and services.

http://www.wiredbrain.net/disintermedation.htm

Disintermediation means becoming the middle person between the buyer and seller. On-line systems such as Amazon.com means direct sales take on a whole new meaning. I would look for a Amazon Wal-mart connection if not merger.

AOL can do what Sears did.
The Sears brands were produced by OEM ( original equipment manufactures ) with Sears keeping a very tight control of quality and margins. Many of their providers became dependents. B2B means the intermediary can arrange shipments from the provider to the buyer and become the super market of the world.

Something missing:

An astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.
Most people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly demonstrated by politics and commercials.
NOW as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social psychological foundation. ]

The technology itself is revolutionary.

The global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional, mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos - morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive of the existing order.

For Example: Dialpad.com is the world's first free Java-based web-to-phone service. With
Dialpad.com, you can make unlimited free phone calls to anybody in the US as long as the other party has a valid phone number. Dialpad.com works just like your own telephone. You can make phone calls to any phone number in the US. Furthermore, you don't need to manually download and install any software. You can make any call while your are browsing the Internet and it is FREE!

weirdbrain ' (wîrd) adj., weird·er, weird·est. Of, relating to, or suggestive of the preternatural or supernatural. Of a strikingly odd or unusual character; strange. Archaic. Of or relating to fate or the Fates. n.
Fate; destiny. One's assigned lot or fortune, especially when evil. Often Weird. Greek Mythology. Roman Mythology. One of the Fates. weird'ly adv. weird'ness n. SYNONYMS: weird, eerie, uncanny, unearthly.
These adjectives refer to what is of a mysteriously strange, usually frightening nature. Weird may suggest the operation of supernatural influences, but it may also be applied to what is merely odd or unusual: “
The person of the house gave a weird little laugh” (Charles Dickens). “
There is a weird power in a spoken word” (Joseph Conrad). Something eerie inspires inexplicable fear or uneasiness that seems to result from a sinister influence: “At nightfall on the marshes, the thing was eerie and fantastic to behold” (Robert Louis Stevenson). Uncanny refers to what is unnatural and peculiarly unsettling: “
The queer stumps . . . had uncanny shapes, as of monstrous creatures, whose eyes seemed to peer out at you” (John Galsworthy). Something unearthly seems so strange and unnatural as to come from or belong to another world: “He could hear the unearthly scream of some curlew piercing the din” (Henry Kingsley).

http://www.compaq.com/rcfoc/index.html Does the term "Network Computer" sound familiar...?
* Another Broadband Alternative -- More acronyms: LMDS and MMDS.
These are technologies for deploying high speed Internet access using broadcast radio waves -- think of it as wireless cable or wireless DSL. A few areas, such as New York City and Silicon Valley, already have some limited implementations. But according to the Oct. 26 New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/yr/mo/biztech/
http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/yr/mo/biztech/

articles/26internet-wireless.html), a new big-name consortium led by Cisco plans to give cable and DSL companies a run for their broadband money -- and they point out that their terrestrial radio-based MMDS (Multichannel Multipoint Distribution Service) solution doesn't require digging up any streets or placing equipment in the difficult-to-enter telephone company offices. (A tutorial on MMDS and related technologies is at http://www.webproforum.com/wire_broad/topic10.html
http://www.webproforum.com/wire_broad/topic10.html ).

Disintermediation
Disintermediation

Make PORTALS your home page and use "wiredbrain" password "synergy" for set-up start pages.
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Starrting the day before
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use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch 1/5/1998 paper money page
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FOR reporters: Please site "wiredbrain" reports that
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NOTICE: SOUTHWINDNET = http://www.highspeedhosting.com/newsite/message.cfm
The digital communications age has arrived. Still a little expensive - but if the price - quality relationships hold - high speed connections should be quite cheap in a year or so.
Then local NODES can provide high speed wireless connections for EVERYTHING - internet with telephone, video and real time data bases, BYE-BYE to MA bell, cable companies, TV networks - as we know them.
The REAL impact will be all the way to China - the billions - the majority of people on this planet who have almost no two-way telecommunications - they can make the great leap forward...

The site is in the process of upgrading service to
ViperLink. VMC Virtual Marketing Corporation

The ViperLink system uses a wireless access system to connect to an ATM
( Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) ATM is a packet switched technology capable of carrying
voice, video & data.)
backbone at an astounding 90Mbps! Our Kentucky office has a full 2.0Mbps
(30% bigger than a T-1) dedicated connection that is burstable to 6.0 Mbps (4
full T-1s) if needed. If at any time, our web sites need additional bandwidth –
they’ve got it!
Never again will there be a problem with not having enough

bandwidth. Ask how many providers can make that claim!
SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 11, 1998--
Verilink Corp. (NASDAQ:VRLK - news) today announced that Splitrock Services, Inc., the U.S.-based provider of Internet access to Prodigy customers, has selected Verilink to provide high-speed access products for its nationwide ATM network.

FOR the Wiredbrain Index and data updates

see short.htm

GO TO CURRENT UPDATES

the short term is well into over bought
conditions
Rising interest rates, oil prices and declining profits is a good reason for a 5 % correction after 6 weeks of rally but markets hit a new peak as cash buyers keep coming. Shares eased as the bourse consolidated after another record-breaking run.

Resistance at Dow 10,000 and SP500 1300 - NASDAQ 2000

WIREDBRAIN'S PORTFOLIO
Wiredbrain high at 195
now181
50% to 65 % gains in less than 4 months ( up from 25 % in Jan )

Support at Dow 8500, - 5 %, 1050 on the SP500, NASDAQ at 1700
( sell: go short ) We, at the height, are ready to decline.

There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,

Or lose our ventures.

GO TO CURRENT UPDATES
OIL INDEX -

OIL UP at 17.00

Markets

LINKS all the major connections

TODAY'S
TRADE :

DJIA DJ INDUSTRIAL (REU:^DJI)

Technology is going to make the world around us smart
as we move away from proprietary architectures to a standards-based ecology of information.

We still need a name for the UCD: UNIVERSAL COMMUNICATION DEVICE or "information - communications - appliance - utility- network computer, cable or wireless black box modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ), play station, boom box, CD, DVD, VHS, camera, VCR, telephone, wireless, cordless, portable, TV, radio, pager, laptop, notebook, library, GPS, map, yellow pages, combat walk and talk and call in air strikes more".

The market for the bandwidth and the appliances is global - with billions of clients world wide.

The money is in software now moving from "programs" to content.
The content will be interactive media that includes program functions. ISP such as AOL, will provide multimedia E-mail as a word processor that can handle graphics, photographs, soon video and data files.
The browser becomes a universal systems package do all the most common functions as plug-ins.
The USB universal serial bus ties to printers, sound and video systems, play stations, phones, keyboards and voice commands, other appliances and services. Microsoft-NBC-General Electric, merge into a convergence of media and communications services. Time-Warner, the News Corp., Disney-ABC, are positioning themselves for the transformation of many business into one.
The current crop of Internet stocks are unlikely to be very important.

Other business includes finance, matching buyers and sellers, and a thousand other ideas and items.
The ISP becomes a bank and travel agent, department store, and service center. Wal-mart, Sears and other may need their own ISP. Clients will pay the ISP for telephone service, cable, lease of hardware, Internet, credit, and may buy their insurance, tickets, or dishes from a company they trust, so it all adds up.

A limited set of functions and libraries in or around a CPU, with the capacities of a play station, will run a package of on demand utilities called from the network. Once there is a break in the bandwidth, your browser can quickly call down any packages it may need - high speed smart updates means you don’t have to have everything stored. Office systems can do this now but are afraid to be pioneers with arrows in their backs. Once Sun, Oracle, IBM or others really have high performance objective networks there will be no need for the bloated windows operation systems.

The market often is as slow as the political process in facing the inevitable forces of technology and social history. Cartels and semi-monopolies are the natural outcome of free competition because organizations can join together to control markets.

The robber barons of the late 19th and early 20th century, such as Morgan, Carnegie, Mellon, Rockefeller, Stanford, Dupont controlled steel and oil, railroads and chemicals. General Motors president Alfred P. Sloan worked with the du Pont's to control the auto market. A U.S. Court of Appeals finds that Aluminum Co. of America (Alcoa) held a 90 percent monopoly in U.S. aluminum ingot production before the war, a monopoly enjoyed by the Mellons for more than half a century. See RCA (NBC - Victor ) below..

Sun's McNealy portrays perils of running the Wintel 'gauntlet' ) ( Windows/intel )

http://www.excite.com/computers_and_internet/tech_news/zdnet/?article=zdnews2.inp

Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems Inc., one could easily draw the conclusion that most of the ills in the computer industry stem from one company and one company only.

The charismatic McNealy used large portions of his keynote address here Thursday at Sun's JavaOne developers conference, as well as a subsequent press conference, to paint Microsoft Corp. as a ruthless monopoly destroying companies and promoting a flawed business model.

"
The market economy works until somebody gets so much market power that they are beyond market principles," he said.

McNealy said Microsoft's monopoly on the desktop through the Windows operating system enables it to sell "bloat" like Office 2000 that people have to buy.

"
The other opportunity it has is to go out and buy little companies that wouldn't normally be successful, bundle them into their Windows or Office hairball and use their lock-in and monopoly leverage to make them successful and drive everyone else out of business," McNealy said. "That makes everybody want to sell their company for a price lower than they want to because if you're not the one bought, you're done."

One of the best examples of how new technologies can be dominated by powerful forces that control standards was the companion development of hardware ( Radios, phonographs, and then television ) as well as soft ware, the programming, records and content necessary to sell the product. People won’t buy radios or TV if there are no stations, there can’t be stations until people have radios or TVs. RCA supported the networks in order to sell radios.
Then they made more from the broadcasting then they did from hardware.
Sarnoff, David, 1891–1971, American radio and television pioneer; b. Russia. He worked for the Marconi Wireless Co., winning recognition as the narrator of the Titanic disaster (1912). After the Radio Corp. of America absorbed (1921) Marconi, Sarnoff became general manager. As president (after 1930) and chairman of the board (from 1947) of RCA, he played a major role in the development of television.
A superheterodyne circuit developed by U.S. Army Signal Corps major Edwin Howard Armstrong, 26, became the basic design for all amplitude modulation (AM) radios. It greatly increases the selectivity and sensitivity of radio receivers over a wide band of frequencies (see 1906; FM, 1933). Radio Corp. of America (RCA) was founded by Owen D. Young (see 1919) who loans Ernst Alexanderson to RCA which will employ him as chief engineer for 5 years (see 1906). RCA acquired the Victor Co. and become a radio-phonograph colossus but anti-trust court actions will separate RCA from GE (see VICTROLA, 1906; NBC, 1926). David Sarnoff urges marketing of a simple "radio music box."
The American Marconi Co. says his plan will make the radio "a ‘household utility’ in the same sense as the piano or phonograph" (see 1912; 1920).
American radio and television pioneer who proposed the first commercial radio receiver and in 1926 formed the National Broadcasting Company.
The first vinylite phonograph record appears in October. RCA-Victor issues a new recording of the 1895 Richard Strauss work Till Eulenspiegels Lustige Streiche, but vinylite will not displace shellac until the perfection of long-playing records (see 1948).

http://cboe.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/cboeget.exe?TICKER=.
DJXQJ++++++

buy at 1 5/8 sell at 2 1/2 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
2 1/ 2 + 5/16 :
PUT PRICE CHANGE PREV.CLOSE VOL SYMBOL OPTION NAME
MAY 88 2 3/8 1/2 2 1/4 2 3/4 DJXQJ DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
APR 87 1 1/4 1/2 1 1/8 1 3/8 DJXPI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG
APR 88 1 3/8 1/8 1 3/8 1 1/2 DJXPJ DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AV

MSQQQ MSFT May8 85.0 PUT By 1105 GMT, Microsoft shares were indicated over $5 higher at $90.
08:31 MONTHLY TRADE GAP HIGHEST SINCE SERIES BEGAN IN 1992.
Last week and Monday:
NKE NIKE INC CL 'B' 45 3/4 Closing Prices.
APR 45 N/C N/C 2 5/8 0 NKEDI NIKE INC CL B
KO puts

FUTURES MARKET

How future will close
``
There's still some end-of-quarter window-dressing going on and if we're heading for a big correction it won't be until then (the end of the quarter),'' said one dealer.
The settlement date for most trading was last week - last minute trades are not recorded in this quarter but next.

FREE FORECAST AND ADVICE
S&P 500 index
The expected values of the index are 1093 and 1109 for April 17 and May 15.

Interest rates up - 5.7 % EURO JUN98 94.3

30Y 5.94 %

NOON

Moneynet

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Also my.yahoo.com user "wiredbrain" password "synergy"
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/america.html

There is a need to
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CME

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News and analysis GO TO Flash first
forecast.htm, then
conditions.htm

GO to short.htm for updates during the day
Wiredbrain's Index Summary, =
-3.50

FORMULA:
FROM +9.5 to -9.5 (
Confidence )

The higher the WI score the higher the probability of being right.
The wiredbrain index (WI) score is close to points on the S&P500 but are

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Lugar Plan To Replace the Income Tax With A National Sales Tax
Since other countries use the VAT, exports are taxed less ( exports don't pay VAT ) and imports are TAXED more. they pay the VAT.
The issue is to transfer social overhead costs off exports and onto imports. DO AWAY WITH THE IRS ! If you want to protect American Jobs, go for tax reform and VAT or sales tax, NOT the stupid protectionism, defensive, anti-foreign, nationalist slogans that make everyone worse off. This should be supported by the labor unions, Pat B. on the right and parts of the democratic party on the left who are part of the labor effort to control imports of better and cheaper goods which hold down inflation.
Once More From the TOP:
It's about time !
The main line press has caught-on to the power of the internet ? What wiredbrain and others ( mainly Netscape, Oracle, ( considered to be a source of wise counsel or prophetic opinions. b. An authoritative or wise statement or prediction ) IBM, SunMicrosystems and the NOISE group ) have been talking about since Netscape 1.0 and WINS connections ( 1995) - the virtual office and the Network Computer has now arrived in the PC world.
"
The new concept ( only to PC world ) goes by a variety of names: instant Web office; virtual office; instant intranet; Web tone; Internet dial tone; and so on.
The idea is to provide everything a user needs on a central server. Users can then access that server over the Internet with just a terminal and a phone line.
Then they "rent" Internet and intranet applications for as little as $10 to $20 per person per month. (That's a fraction of the per-user cost of an in-house intranet.)"
and a box that cost 10 % of a PC work station ( $500 vs. $5,000 ) and doesn't crash, doesn't need systems managers, and doesn't require constant upgrades but does need bandwidth.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 1997
Instant Intranets Just Stage One in Emerging Market Struggle
Jesse Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk
What is clear but not said is this is the end of the Age of the PC. First the main frame, then the PC now the NC -

There is now a immense industry we can call
IT “INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY”.
IT now represents the critical modern enterprise growing to be a quarter of all economic activity.
IT is a greater engine for growth than railroads in the 19th century, oil and chemical industries in the first half of this century. IT is equal to the auto industry, which reached 25 % in the 1950s. “IT” like the auto industry includes the hardware ( the computer or car), the infrastructure, (communications and networks or the roads) the energy ( software or oil ) the services, ( consultants and staff or Gas Stations ) and parts ( modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s, drives, or car radios ). IT includes the computers ( the car ), the roads ( the telecom business ), services ( software ) and the social educational infrastructure.
IT provides the web of life for modern enterprise - design, production, distribution, sales, of goods and services. IT is the growth industry and in labor market there are millions of new jobs and additional people needed world wide.
Unlike the auto industry the IT business evolves quickly. New hardware computers and chips, new methods of communications, new applications evolve quickly. IT is quickly becoming one unified, highly complex living system on a global basis.
The whole is more than the sum of the parts - synergy that comes from elaborate interactions.

There are critical “flash point” - global telcom systems based on satellites connected to earth stations that can use telephone lines including new high bandwidth technologies, optic fiber, wireless broadband, and cable connections.
The high bandwidth connections use improved modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s to provide support for networks.
These new networks provide what have been called telephones, television, personal computers, and something new - beyond what now are common utilities.

The common base system is the “browser”, which will provide all of the application in Java type objects - in a Video User Interface (VUI) using chips that can handle digital TV and Digital Hard Drives for storage - all as parts of the new super modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s.
IT is why the DOJ Microsoft case is important. What was called the “operation system” OS now becomes VUI, an interface between a “terminal” ( telephone, TV, and PC = NC ) and a communications media.
The interface uses program “packets” as well as content “packets” the
operational software is contained within the data.
The difference between program and content no longer is significant. With bandwidth the “word processor” is attached to the files and comes as an instant updated package at the moment of use. This is Netscape’s, Oracle and others “vision” and the real challenge to Microsoft. Now the hard part... which companies will be winners, who has
IT... who has the "catch-on" factor ?
Berst Alert FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1997

Bandwidth Progress Report
STOCK PICKS and Information:

and

WIREDBRAIN INVESTMENT CLUB:

AUGUST picks USER wiredbrain PASSWORD synergy
We start with $1000.00 units in packages of about $250,000 with about a dozen members who share a common interest and knowledge, computers, telecommunications, wireless et al.
The model we started in Aug. on satellites a $1,000 unit would be $1,216.42 on stocksite ( user wiredbrain, password "synergy") and $1224.42 on
my.excite. We are looking for a on-line broker. Members can discuss and make recommendations on the portfolio and buy in or out at anytime. Money goes directly to the broker but we may need some kind of payment agent. Fee is 10 % of gain, or $ 21 or $ 22 on the example above when sold or taken out every 60 days, 10 % of $81,000 profit on stocksite or $ 59,605 on excite. after 60 days, then start the profit count anew from that position. An options fund could gain or lose a lot X100 more.
REPORT on STOCK PICKS
Take the money and Run !
We would have lost money in the down market except for the short position in Microsoft and the Index
options
below; We also closed out the winners ( it's important to have high and low stops ) before they took a dive. ( Closed positions don't show in the report structure I have, nor does cash, options or short positions )
Remember the market is
OVER Valued by 25 % so can drop several 1000 points on the DJ.. Earning/Price Ratios To see what to do NOW Click on :
OEX down from 930: call down to 10 (+13 ): put up to
134:
( + 106 ) 1 point = $ 100 S & P 100 INDEX 134 + 57 7/ 8 (.OEWXF )
.

What Next ?
PUT VALUES
RATHER HIGH
.SXBKL sold at 31 1/2 ($ 3150.00 ) now at 16 3/4 ( $ 1675 ) for a gain of $1475or 47 % .sxbwl bought at $1950 ( 19 1/2) now $2925 ( 29 1/4 ) gain of $ 975 or 50 % --
.oewwe bought at 5 1/4 ( $525 ) Thurs. now 37 1/2 ( $ 3750 ) gain of $ 3,225 or % 600 -- sell .oewkn 9 3/4 now 3 1/8 gain of 6 + or 2/3 = 66 %

The
laws of large numbers suggest that
if the market was a lot of small actors acting independently a 25 % drop in a stock, in a few hours, would be a rare event BUT it's not composed of small actors but big actors that act alike. First the brokerage companies buy low for inventory and sell high to clients, second institutional investors are part of "big" clubs with insurance companies and the mutual fund managers that use options to protect positions and make money in both directions. That's why you need $250,000 in about 20 stocks with no more than 10 % in any one basket. AND you need to balance your long and short positions and use a few
options.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17, 1997
Why Bill Gates Wants to Give You a Cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )
Jesse Berst, Editorial Director
ZDNet AnchorDesk
Microsoft appears poised -- once again -- to throw big money at this latest gleam in Bill's eye. Reports say
the software giant may invest as much as a billion dollars in
TCI, the largest cable-system operator in the
U.S.

The
Razor and the blades:

The point Jesse keeps missing is that connections are the gateway to the
applications.
The core issues are who benefits ( what companies) and who owns the backbone of the system - satellites, wireless, high bandwith telephone, direct broadcast AND the billions of new connections in other parts of the
world. This site explores the many aspects of this true IT (
information technology ) revolution.
To start at the
beginning:
"In this emerging world of boundless
bandwidth, companies will prevail only by transcending the folklore of scarcity and embracing the full promise of the digital dawn." George Gilder

Break the Bandwidth Barrier
"New high-speed modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s that operate over cable
TV networks (
wireless broadband and direct broadcast ) and ordinary phone lines will give an unprecedented amount of affordable
bandwidth to everyone.

The mythical system described (sic) is about 100 times faster than today's PCs at one-hundredth the cost, and that's approximately the price/performance advantage that a new generation of broadband modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s will deliver over existing phone lines and cable
TV networks. Compared to the latest analog modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s, it's a quantum leap in affordable bandwidth that spans two orders of magnitude for about one-hundredth the cost of a T1 dedicated phone line. Never before in the history of computing has there been such a jump. Microprocessors grow about twice as powerful only every 18 months, and analog modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s are only about 10 times faster than they were 20 years ago. "
Nonetheless, the immediate result of the new generation of modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s will be Internet access at broadband speeds of 1 to 5 Mbps for less than $40 a month.
The long-term impact is an open question. At a minimum, broadband modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s will shatter the boundaries between local and remote network resources, bringing the Internet and the World Wide Web as near to your PC as a LAN server. Webmasters will be able to build spectacular multimedia Web sites. Businesses and schools will inexpensively link their remote LANs into high-speed WANs without leasing expensive dedicated phone lines (see the figure "Building a WAN with Cable modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s"). Videoconferencing could finally become real. "

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