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Social
ergonomics
LONGER TERM:
A few weeks,
The chance of closing dow
n
55 %
down with a range of DOWN 15 +- 5 pt.. to
985 - 1.5. %
is 950
which should hold at 930
Then
905
is next stop from top of RANGE: low of 930 high of 955
The floor is is 860
( wiredbrain password
synergy )
called the death spiral and Tokyo
is staring it in the face.
The Nikkei 225 average has plunged 13.7 per
cent since Wednesday it fell to 14,555, a two-year low - now back to 17,000
History
Markets around the
world:
The high dollar and weak foreign economies hurt foreign earning,
( in dollars) profits and exports.
Technologies
NEWS & INDEX are leaders and Markets.
We
do have to worry about the trade gap - with the YEN down and exports hurt
-
$IXCO NASDAQ High Technology Index
$xci
technology
U.S. STOCKS SEEN HURT AMID WAVE
OF EARNINGS WARNINGS.
MarketWatch
US Q3 GDP REVISED DOWN TO 3.1% FROM 3.3%. DEFLATION: DJ COMMODITY NDX
5:01PM 131.38 +10.45 -7.37%
131.38 - 142.93
141.33 - 167.28 ^DJC
The
chance
of being up
on the close is
45
% with range up to 1. % +- 10 pt. to 1115 +
1.5 % on strong dollars, low interest rates and hopes of recovery
in Asia. Dead cat bounce - cover short positions -
markets
Watch for sectors - technology leads the market
( 85 % chance )
Range
charts ( 960 to 930 ) This is a good resting place - at the 180 day
average - 950 We are all in the same boat and rise and fall
on the same tides - just in different time zones.
ASIA
CURRENCIES down set the tone
The next days market is
posted ( before it happens) at 8 PM EST the day before and 11 PM and again
at 6 AM update ( GMT +4) for
how
the day will open
at 9:30 to 10:30
AM the first bounce
-
see for yourself how good we are check
in at night ( US time) and first thing in the morning.
Watch for
second
bounce from around 10:30 to noon
CNNFN
REPORTS
:
"It's
all about the Far East," one London share trader said. "But there's no
depth to this market, there's
not very much on the order book so underneath it's not that red."
ECONOMIC MORNING
REPORT
U.S. STOCKS SEEN HURT AMID WAVE
OF EARNINGS WARNINGS.
BABBLE: Don't believe
most of the market reports that say the decline was due to " some BS, such
as profit taking, inflation concerns,
The FED AKA the Wizard of OZ or one
stock such Oracle fall yesterday, or Wed. a problem at banks, because it
was built into the market before it opened. If you understand
how something works you can predict its behavior. All the numbers
are in motion so change all the time !
There we be a great amount of political
pressure to get the dollar down and interest rates down- policy has to
be to flood the world in MONEY
to avoid deflation
- everyone wants to buy US bonds Euro $ or DM or ECU's?
Japan Nov. trade surplus 1.064 trln yen, up 58.7% on year .9057 Govt aide
says Japan to target 1.9% growth in FY98 real GDP
Editorial:
see
analysis page
MONEYNET
CME
- 75 % chance of CME forecast being right
direction
on the open Wiredbrain's Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday were right on ! +- 10 %
Asia Markets, Europe , ( London , Paris , Frankfort )
BUT it's technology
(PSE)
that is critical today - if they go up or down
markets
go with them (
$NDX
) - watch
$IXCO NASDAQ High Technology Index
$xci
technology
SEE
TAILGATE
01/26
06:54 London U.S. stocks flat, eyes on Clinton, earnings
Traders said the rebound today suggested the market had gotten
overly pessimistic last week about the consequences of allegations
that President Bill Clinton had an affair with a former White House intern,
Monica Lewinsky, and then advised her to lie about.
When the news first broke last week about the charges against Clinton,
"the market got very oversold on a short-term basis," said Anthony Basile,
a managing director at PMG Advisers in West Conshohocken, Pa. Basile noted
that President Clinton denied the charges again today.
"Until we know more about the situation other than the allegations...we
had sort of a reflex rally," Basile said. A US bond trader said some of
the market's agitation about Clinton had subsided.
"People think that although Clinton probably did it, from a legal view
he might be able to work something out," he said, and added that there
is more of a sense in the market that the president could find a "way out."
Some traders said the bond market's rally had less to do with its assessment
of the president's situation than with the purchase of up to 15,000 Mar
bond contracts alleged to have been done by one account, said to have been
either a hedge fund or a West Coast fund manager.
LIBOR 94.365 = 5.635 % ( prime down ) very close to
30Y
Interest rates DOWN
5.9
30 Y bond at 106 flat curve = low inflation. commodities PRICES falling
( Why would anyone want long term bonds with it's
increased price risk vs. notes or 1 to 5 yr. bonds tax free, discount rates
and notes and short term bonds could drop to under 4 % ( down quite a bit
) -
DJ COMMODITY NDX 131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high
^DJC
Global deflation - therefore are
the best long buy. EC bonds will have to go up before long bond can
go much higher from here. Short blue chips
NFT
Multinational
Company Index
-
BLACK Friday is POSSIBLE. All in all US shares
are too high and will come down 10% from S&P500 955 or 15 % from their
highs before they go up past new highs again. In fact, what are US shares
and companies and what are "foreign" is not very important. International
firms are global enterprises, really they are not just in theory but they
really are global firms with global prices for their shares.
IMF
faces critical chorus over Asia bail-out
SEE DEFLATION: How the IMF can
make things worse from Soros:
The News
FOREX: FX dealers will remain fixated on the latest twists and
turns
regarding the allegations surrounding President Clinton.
The market
is
becoming increasingly worried about the potential fall-out from
the scandal. US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's reiteration Thursday
that a strong dollar is "very much" in the US interests should continue
to underpin the currency.
BONDS:
There are some Fed speakers on the slate, but the market remains
focused on Asia and on any new developments in the Clinton scandal.
Weakness in Asia or more bad news for the President is likely to add
to the flight-to-quality bid at the short end. Also look out for
more steepening in the yield curve.
US STOCKS: Further weakness in Asia is likely to spill over into
US
trading. But investors will also be attentive to earnings reports
and will react accordingly to those firms that surprise positively
or disappoint. All eyes on trade, but the story everybody is looking
tomaterialize, the Asia effect, still won't be felt for some months now.
TheUS trade deficit will widen, but not by that much in November.
The realimpact
probably won't be seen until March, when January data seeps out.
INDONESIA'S 'VOLUNTARY FRAMEWORK' FOR CORP. DEBT RAISES DEFAULT CHANCE:
S&P.
FOCUS-Jakarta stock market rises, rupiah fragile By
Mantik Kusjanto JAKARTA, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Indonesia's stock market
soared on Monday, ignoring persistent weakness in the rupiah currency which
remained weighed down by fears over the country's massive private debt
and political concerns.
The composite index of 288 companies closed
5.03 percent higher at 473.69 ( now 485) points despite increasing concern
over Indonesia's debt situation and potential social unrest as food prices
spiral upwards.
Australia
on alert over Indonesia
By Peter Hartcher, Asia-Pacific Editor
The Federal Government is making contingency plans to evacuate Australian
citizens from Indonesia, fearing the breakdown of its economy could lead
to serious unrest.
Officials said although there was
no immediate cause for alarm, the possibility of mass protests and violence
was increasing daily as the country's economy deteriorated.
Food riots have erupted in parts of East Java over the past month. Some
Australian officials believe the number and scale will
increase at the end of the Ramadan month of fasting and prayer on January
30.
The price of rice and of cooking oil has been escalating
and supplies are short. Water is scarce because of
drought.
The Government has forecast a 50 per cent increase in the number
of jobless this year.
See what I see
go where I go !
Market short term:
REPORT : if you have strong faith ( which I don't ) short ( puts
) on market highs -
- the market can do anything it wants - including
proving me wrong - but the breath is weak, there is no tech leadership,
dollar and bonds are down other markets have better value.. Earning reports
are in the past - and the cost of doing business is going up - ``It
does make you kind of nervous, and when people are nervous, they sell stocks,''-
the index means direction -+ if to buy, sell, close or hold, time
to hold them, fold them or bet them? Hold down - maybe close them ?
"It's blindingly obvious what the opposing forces are
,"
said Chris Carter, global strategist at UBS. [ For
this he get paid and quoted - makes some sense if you don't stop and think
] "Company earnings face downward
pressure while support is coming from strong bonds and interest
rate expectations,"
Carter said it would take a combination of big earnings disappointments
and an environment where bond yields were going up to drive the market
lower --
COMMENT: If tomorrow as it
did today the cost of wages and oil goes up ( maybe a War near all that
Oil ) - then the bonds go down and interest rates up.
The earning are hurt
by increased costs of both labor and the price of money and energy. SO
big earning disappointments and higher bond yields are possible if you
can't raise prices because of cheap imports. Growth and
foreign earning hurt by deflation in 20 % of the world's markets
The US
is not an island
There is growing awareness as Soros pointed out
that the international financial and the IMF is broken and doesn't know
what its doing - the cure is making things worse - the international meeting
to Fix it maybe too little too late but very welcomed -
come on guys
get real !
while to drive it higher would take rising
earnings forecasts
coupled with falling bond yields.(
Then why didn't
the market go up during the last 7 months - with the market stuck at SP500
955 +- 25 with great earning growth and much lower interest rates )
Neither combinations seemed likely, he said. "
The bulls see
the Dow going to 9,000 and the bears see it dropping to 7,000, but I don't
see why either should happen for some time."
Sunday January 25, 4:20 pm Eastern Time
FOCUS-German econ experts fear Asia-led deflation
By Catherine O'Mahony
FRANKFURT, Jan 25
(Reuters) - Germany is facing an ever-growing risk of being infected
by a deflation plague from Southeast Asia because of the relative weakness
of its current economic recovery, top economists warned on Sunday.
Norbert Walter, chief economist of Germany's leading commercial bank
Deutsche Bank AG (OTC BB:DTBKY - news; DBKG.F), and the DIW economic institute
both said there was a significant danger that German prices and wages will
start to fall.
In a comment piece for the Welt am Sonntag newspaper, Walter said that
the Asian crisis was far from over, but that even if it spread, the worst-case
scenario for the U.S. was inflation stagnating below two percent.
``However Europe, including Germany, is in greater danger of being infected
by Asian deflationary tendencies, since the recovery -- carried solely
by export growth -- is weak,'' Walter said.
``Asian deflationary tendencies make it probable that European interest
rates will tend to fall on average in 1998 rather than rise,'' Walter added.
The risk of deflation has taken firm hold as an issue in Germany, just
as in many other nations, as economists weigh the potential side-effect
of the ongoing financial crisis in Asia.
Moving the Market
WALL ST. WEEK AHEAD Investors await Super Tuesday
By Huw Jones
NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Wall Street investors face a shortened
trading week that will be heavy on earnings and light on economic data,
with Asia's financial woes still the market's wild card.
The earnings reporting season will move into top gear.
`But longer term worries lingered. John Noonan, head of Proprietary
Trading at National Australia Bank Singapore summed it up: ``You have
the classic market risk of buy the rumor, sell the fact.''
Investors
Beware: Asia's Ills Not Over
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bargain hungry investors are looking at Asian
stocks with lust in their eyes after months of deep declines that have
been fueled by the Asian economic meltdown.
But the experts say there is still danger in ailing Asia and warn investors
that they are not dealing with just a 24-hour flu.
Stocks in Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and South
Korea have had near death experiences as investor hysteriahas
walloped their markets, sending them to levels that priced their companies
for outright bankruptcies.
The myth that the Asian economy was invincible came crashing to the
ground in October, and the fallout is still being seen globally.
The Asian turmoil was critical because the region has been a key
pillar in the global economy.
Asia was the victim of its own success as investors convinced themselves
that trees grow forever to the sky and rising real estate prices beget
ever higher returns. When the speculative bubble burst, the region's economies
and stock markets fell like a house of cards.
Now it seems that all the bad news about Asia has been reflected in
the stock markets, and the crisis may be easing.
Although some optimistic investors say they don't see anything that
can still upset the markets, the experts warn that Asia's problems have
not been solved and the healing will take time.
"
There's still danger out there even though it's tempting for investors
after stocks have fallen so much," said Anthony Cragg, head portfolio manager
for Strong Capital Management's Strong Funds, an internationally invested
fund with assets of $250 million.
He said people are making a big mistake when they try to draw a parallel
between the mid-'90s economic crisis in Mexico, -- a relatively brief economic
disruption -- and the current Asian mess.
"I don't think we are going to get a rapid overnight recovery in Asia
because, for one thing, several countries are involved and we are dealing
with a different set of problems that will take longer to work out."
The hope that Asia was turning the corner this week helped spark a recovery
in the Dow Jones industrial average.
By Friday, the index of 30 blue-chip stocks was up 173 points for the
week, nearly halving the trading period's loss of 385 points, which was
the biggest weekly fall in history. ( in points not % )
Cragg believes that Asian markets will eventually offer opportunities
to investors but not before the second half of this year.
"Sure, there will be rallies in the markets -- dead cat's bounces
or suckers' rallies -- but serious investors will need to be wary and
very, very selective about getting back into Asia," he said.
Analysts feel it is still too early to talk about a bad situation where
the worst is over.
01/20
00:38 FOCUS-Asian currencies shaken as rupiah caves in
By Sonali Desai
SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Asian currencies headed back downhill
on Tuesday as Indonesia's rupiah crumbled through a major support
level and regional stock markets shed some of their recent gains.
01/19 05:32 FOCUS-Asia currencies firm but lag stocks rally
And analysts saw little scope for a sustained rebound.
"
The deteriorating balance sheets of corporates, coming debt payments,
higher inflationary pressures and high interest rates will make it difficult
for Asian economies to show much growth this year," Banque Paribas said
in a daily commentary.
The Indonesian rupiah was flirting with the 15,000 per dollar level
again in late trade, hit by rumours that Jakarta banks were unable to meet
their maturing dollar obligations and were offering to make payments in
rupiah.
Growing signs of social unrest due to rising food prices and uncertainty
over who would succeed President Suharto also weighed against the rupiah.
Bridge News
(Updates with morning's
trade)
But the rally had lost momentum by midsession when prices, though
mostly still firm, ceded some of their gains.
German shares rose the most, by over two percent in early trade, and
proved the most resilient when the initial surge faded, benefiting from
the strong dollar which is a boon for Germany's big exporters. ``
The
key issue is what's going to happen to corporate earnings in the next six
to nine months
,'' he said. ``A lot of companies have and will continue
to blame, rightly or wrongly, what's happening in Asia for any shortfall.
That will have impact on equity markets. I wouldn't say we're out of the
woods in terms of the impact of Asia on the U.S. economy and financial
markets.''Durrant said that while Asian stock markets are moving up,
currencies are not.``That tells us that economically the fundamentals
haven't switched,'' he said, adding that overall improvement in the region
may be ``more remission than reversal.''
` Russia Outlook: Analysts say banks threatened by Asian crisis Asia
crisis affecting growing number of European banks
LAST NEWSEEK:
07:35 GERMANY'S DAX UP 1.5%; GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT
JUMPS TO 12.6% IN JAN.
07:32 JAPAN'S
NIKKEI UP 120.7 POINTS, OR 0.7%, TO 17003.
07:31 HONG KONG UP 139.5 POINTS, OR 1.35%, TO 10442.
07:21 LONDON'S FTSE UP 1.2% TO NEW RECORD HIGH.
07:18 ASIA MARKETS RALLY; HK UP 1.4%, JAPAN UP 0.7%.
``It will have major implications right the way through
the market.'' Tech gains being paced by the chip makers which have
benefitted from positive coverage from Morgan Stanley, DLJ, and Prudential...
Chip equipment companies riding the coattails of the chip makers and are
also trading higher... In the broader market, investors taking a sedative
with respect to drug stocks after merger mania got their adrenaline running
high yesterday... Subsequently, most drug makers are
moving lower on profit taking..
02/03 06:57 ``We are seeing a little bit of reflection
and consolidation given the tremendous rises over the past few days,''
said Brian O'Donnell, sales trader at Schroders.
``
There is no real selling pressure, we are just pausing
for breath.''
SINGAPORE , Feb 11 (Reuters) - Fears that Indonesia and South Korea
could be hit by a mounting social backlash againsttheir economic crises
sent stock prices in both countries sharply lower on Wednesday, brokers
said.
Most Asian currencies meanwhile pared early gains made on Indonesia's
moves towards a currency board system to stabilise its rupiah.
Weaker stocks in Jakarta and Seoul failed to deter a rejuvenated
Philippine market, where prices surged by nearly seven percent to a five-month
high on the back of a stronger peso and hopes its economic crisis was receding.
``
The market is alive,'' said Irving Ackerman, president at I. Ackerman
and Co in Manila.
The Jakarta stock market demonstrated that despite recent signs of
recovery Indonesia's crisis was far from over. Traders rushed to sell on
rumours that riots had broken out in protest against rising food prices
and as President Suharto warned that unknown ``parties'' were seeking to
undermine the economy.
``Stocks fell drastically in the afternoon session, but so far people
have been selling stocks based on rumours,'' commented one broker.
The composite index dived 30.09 points to 487.61, a fall of 5.81
percent.
Even a strong performance by the rupiah currency, boosted by the
growing likelihood that a currency board will replace the current exchange
rate system, failed to reassure the stock market.
Finance Minister Mar'ie Muhammad told parliament the government was
drawing up a framework for such a system which would be submitted to the
legislature ``in the near future.''
South Korean shares also suffered from jitters as a showdown loomed
between the country's militant trade union umbrella group and the government.
The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions defied a government warning and
said it would go ahead with a general strike planned for Friday.
The industrial strife fears spooked foreign investors and sent the
main index slumping 3.99 percent, or 21.63 points, to 520.14.
A very different mood prevailed in Manila, though, as the peso's
rise against the dollar inspired traders to go on a buying spree.
The
currency strengthened to 37.568 in early trade against its U.S. counterpart
from the previous day's close 39.28, before slipping back later.
``Dollars are flowing back into this country.
There is no question
the worst is over, but there may be some rough spots,'' Ackerman said.
The main index galloped 6.71 percent higher to close at 2,218.32.
Trade elsewhere in the region was generally subdued, with the Tokyo
stock market closed for a holiday and the Thai stock market also on a break.
Hong Kong stocks edged lower as traders balanced good news in the
form of a new record high close on Wall Street and firmer Asian currencies
against an urge to take profits while the Hang Seng hovered near the key
11,000 level.
Some bought on the logic that an Indonesian currency board would
add to the credibility of Hong Kong's pegged exchange rate system. ``It
would actually be quite good for Hong Kong,'' said Richard Verin, head
of equities trading at CS First Boston.
The Hang Seng closed down 66.26 points, or 0.61 percent, at 10,793.41
after hitting a high of 11,189.80 earlier.
Taiwan stocks put on healthy gains as Tuesday's rise in U.S. share
prices injected some fresh impetus.
``Taiwan's investors were looking for a reason to rally their market,
and Wall Street gave the reason,'' said one analyst.
The main index ended 1.70 percent, 145.76 points, higher at 8,713.42.
Malaysian shares drifted lower after brokers said attempts at a rally
were dashed by a weaker ringgit.
The composite index closed 0.36 percent, or 2.70 points, lower at
739.87.
Updates
on Dealers
The
Tailgate thing
``It
does make you kind of nervous, and when people are nervous, they sell stocks,''-
the index means direction -+ if to buy, sell, close or hold, time
to hold them, fold them or bet them? Hold down - maybe close them ?
- What the "smart" money is doing: selling US assets at market
high, and buying sovereign debt in Asia and selected stocks. Not without
risk - but ... no risk no gain
Do it yourself contest:
Mail in your results before 9:30 Am and win free options profits
from $ 1,000 trade :
- 1.5 pt on dollar FX ( long term up
+ 2.5 ) ECU = .92
UP with some rapid change and some NEW instability
in
Asia
The real problem is Financial
chaos and US profits on foreign earnings, there are two reason for a high
dollar - as in bonds a flight to quality or expectations of a strong US
economy with low inflation, this is a flight to quality; ( money flowing
in ) both support stock prices BUT make US stocks higher in relationship
to world markets, the higher dollar is a very mixed blessing:
ASIA
CURRENCIES
Bridge Reports
*CREDIT Markets:
check
again! Benchmarks: Dollar 127 from 133.71
1.764 UP to 1.83 DM per $ the dollar is UP when you
get more DM for a dollar or .57 down to .545 one mark cost less in
US cents, French Frank over 6 per dollar $1.084 =
ECU = .923 of a ECU for one US $ , dollar is UP from (.895 1.11 )
A British pound is up and costs $1.66 up from $1.63 Us dollar
is down from .61 English pennies per $ to .60 % of a pound for
one $
The
Dollar
FX chaos South Koreas Won
1500 from 1,767 now, from
low of 1,960 and high of 850 - Indonesian Rupiah at *12,550 down
50 % from 5,000 Thai Baht 52, AND the beat goes on
check
again!
+ 2.5 pt. Europe, + 1.5 on Asia
Markets
up
in Europe BUT check
performance
all the markets
US Market open Bridge News:
17,000 NIKKEI 16600 UP from 15258
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 3.37% or 515.49 yen to end at a new
1997 settlement low of 14,799.40, as fears intensified further about the
possibility of more bankruptcies on the back of the ongoing credit crunch,
traders said. Today's close on the Nikkei average is the lowest since July
199
5.
9252 HK STOCKS low 8121.06 down from 10843.47
569 South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 401.58 up
to 456.20
"What we're seeing in Seoul is straight forward market meltdown. I have
no idea where it's going to stop. Thank heavens we're out," said the senior
fund manager at a European bank, who asked not to be identified.
The Seoul index ended down 7.50 percent at 366.36 -- its biggest-ever
fall in percentage terms -- while the Korean won slumped to 1,962 against
the U.S. dollar from Monday's close of 1,715. NOW 1567
The Chosun Ilbo newspaper quoted Kim as telling party members on Monday:
"I can't sleep since I was briefed (about the situation). I am totally
flabbergasted."
"
These sorts of comments are guaranteed to send a market down.
If the president can't sleep at night, what should investors be doing?,"
the fund manager said.
Indonesian stocks jumped, .
The composite index ended 11.18 points,
or 2.90 percent, higher at 397.03 points. Indonesia Jakarta Composite
^JKSE 485 UP from 350.237 "Active buying by foreign
funds coupled with support from the government through its securities firms
also boosted the composite index," a broker said.
Battered Thai stocks ended 2.67 percent lower as local investors unloaded
shares on concern over the weak baht and banks that may have to recapitalize
due to rising non-performing loans. Thailand SET ^SETI
363.38 to 492
The composite SET index slid for the third consecutive
trading day, closing 10.08 points lower at 366.87.
The Taiwan stock index ended 0.81 percent lower at 8,038.31, with traders
saying sentiment was affected by the falls in Korea. Taiwan
Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 8085 from
7375.14
"
The Korean won's fall is getting worse and worse. How
can Taiwan, as a tough competitor, not worry?" said Michael On, managing
director of Young Asset Management.
Stocks in the Philippines were down 1.67 percent with traders in Manila
depressed by a further fall in the peso. NOW AT 44.5 down 25 % Philippines
PSE Composite ^PSI 1872.84
down to 1487.19 back up to 1948
Malaysian shares were hit by Standard & Poor's downgrading of the
country's sovereign debt rating to A from A-plus.
Although the downgrade had been expected -- and Malaysia remains an
investment grade -- thin trading conditions meant the effect of sell orders
was exaggerated.
The benchmark composite index was off 2.37 percent at
556.35 at the close. Malaysia KLSE Composite ^KLSE Jan 2
569 UP from 477.57
Singapore stocks were slightly easier, with the Straits Times index
ending down 5.34 points at 1,536.31. Singapore Straits Times ^SS1
1518.20 to 1368.06 to 1073.47
back up to 1259
Australia All Ordinaries ^AORD 2385.3 UP
to 2653
China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 2:01AM 1171.254 to 1194.102
up to 1226.96 India BSE 30 ^BSESN 6:51AM 3641.11 +24.77
+0.68% to Jan 2 3719.85 down to 3224
New Zealand NZSE 40 ^NZ40C 6:38PM 2227.97 +0.77 +0.03%
to 2314.91 down to 2235
Pakistan Karachi 100 ^KSE 6:03AM 1688.20 to Jan 3 1735.14
down to 1578 UP tp 1609
Europe from Jan 2nd *18996 Italy MIBTel ^CMMG
17839 record high *956 Netherlands AEX General
^AEX 934.12 570 Russia Moscow Times ^MTMS
849.18 *695 Spain Madrid General ^SMSI 660.07
record high 3034 Sweden Stockholm General ^SFOG 3014.61
*6582.6 Switzerland Swiss Market ^SSMI 6387.8 Making
new highs because the growth rates are better - and
Asia
less of a problem and the ECU common currency - I expect EU to go up more
that US for the whole year.
Paris 3000, (to 3172.14 UP from 2966 ) London over 5,200
( to 5458.50 ) Frankfort to 4300
to 4440.38 from 4237.31
Technology
= - 1.5
=
( long term + 2.0 in telecommunications - 3.5 in computers and chips )
Technology NASDAQ 100 INDEX (Nasdaq: ^NDX) - More
$SOX
(PSE)
Nasdaq 100
$NDX
$IXCO
NASDAQ High Technology Index
Market
Indications
leading indicator NSDQ100 CCMP Nasdaq Comb - -NASD COMBINED-COMPUTER
($IXCO) and 539.16 the
NFT
Multinational
Company Index
WIREDBRAIN'S
PORTFOLIO User Wiredbrain Password "synergy" personal Index
General communications Weighted Technology - Last Updated: Monday,
January 5, 1998 7:46PM EST - All data delayed at least 20 minutes Portfolio
Totals Purchase Value 1,374,850.35 Today's Change +32,033.13
Accumulated Change 343,442.15 24 % since OCT/NOV Current Value
TOTAL
=
[+ 2.5 interest rates +1.5 dollar ] = + 4 up
+ 1.5 Markets ( Asia ) + 2.5 Europe - 1.5 Tech leaders
- 1.5 MO = + 1.5 down
+ 6.5 positive above the 80 day
moving average
of 955 without fundamentals
this would be close to the bottom of this wave - but lower growth and earnings
will lower the market to 930 or so without a lot of up bounce
955
is working price.
MICROSOFT
CORPORATION 10 1/ 2 - 1 1/ 4 (.MSQMX ) CLOSED
SHORT POSITIONS
Index Call ( close at 975 on S&P)
start
@ 935 target 975 or close enough - Index PUT ( close at
935 on S&P)
start @ 975 target at 930 or close enough
STEP 12: NEW
POSITIONS
Actual trades
on FLASH.HTM
shorts
the
market USA.
The News
LIBOR JAN98 94.42 = 5.68 % ( prime ) very close
to 30Y Interest rates UP
5.81
30 Y bond at 106 flat curve = low inflation. commodities PRICES falling
( Why would anyone want long term bonds with it's
increased price risk vs. notes or 1 to 5 yr. bonds tax free, discount rates
and notes and short term bonds could drop to under 4 % ( down quite a bit
) - DJ COMMODITY NDX 131.38 - 167.2
^DJC
Global deflation - therefore are
the best long buy. EC bonds will have to go up before long bond can
go much higher from here. Short blue chips
NFT
Multinational
Company Index
-
BLACK Friday is POSSIBLE. All in all US shares
are too high and will come down 10% from S&P500 955 or 15 % from their
highs before they go up past new highs again. In fact, what are US shares
and companies and what are "foreign" is not very important. International
firms are global enterprises, really they are not just in theory but they
really are global firms with global prices for their shares.
IMF
faces critical chorus over Asia bail-out
SEE DEFLATION: How the IMF can
make things worse from Soros:
SINGAPORE, Jan 14 (Reuters) -
The International Monetary Fund faces
a growing chorus of criticism for its attempts to push through economic
reforms in Asia in return for billions of dollars to rescue the region
from financial crisis.
The following are examples over the past week of outspoken opposition
and criticism:
-- Leading German central banker Helmut Hesse said on Tuesday the IMF
appeared to have been misled... for a long time on the situation in
Asia.
Even in its annual report for 1997 it spoke in tones of highest praise
of Thailand and Korea, for example, the Bundesbank council member said.
-- A confidential report by the IMF itself criticized Indonesian President
Suharto's government for failing to enact promised reforms but acknowledged
that instead of restoring confidence, IMF strategy had prompted panic.
In a dispatch from Jakarta, the New York Times said the report described
a key moment in Indonesia's downturn, which came in November when the IMF
forced the closure of 16 insolvent banks.
IMF economists believed the step would restore confidence in the
remainder of the banking sector by eliminating bad apples, but instead
it sparked panic.
SHORT TERM
Daily Stocks
-
The Search Engine for Stocks and Funds
ACTION
a day or two:
Market
Data
CBS
SNAPSHOT
Yahoo world
reports:
After an rise to a 69-month high of 134.40 yen, the greenback
temporarily fell below 125 yen in U.S. trading.
The back side of the flight to quality: As Asia look hot the
American Market is not - Global investors sell dollar assets and dollars
for under priced
Asian and EU assets.
The high
dollar is a mixed blessing - so are financial shifts back from US to them.
`` That's a classic reason for the long end of the (Treasury) market
to perform poorly,'' because the YEN value of the US bond has decreased.
As the US dollar goes up the price of US assets ( stocks and bonds
) increase, as do the prices of all exports. If you think the
dollar is going up more that's OK but if you think it's overvalued
( as a result of a flight to quality ) and US Government and exporters
will work to DECREASE the value of the dollar then you want to sell
US assets while they are HOT. Decline in US interest rates, growth
rates, rates of return ( profits ) will make US assets less attractive
with the EU and other areas. As people sell dollar assets and then the
dollars themselves, the dollar declines, when it declines more people sell,
and sell dollars and you have a free fall - as in South East Asia,
Korea and in the past in Latin America.
The lower dollar makes US exports
attractive and assets cheap as they are in
Asia
today. If the IMF does not completely screw it up ( by forcing a credit
crunch, and requiring killing interest rates ) money flows back into the
low cost, high return areas.
SEE analysis
BRIDGE NEWS
European activity could be restrained ahead of monetary
policy meetings in France, Germany and Britain today. Germany's Bundesbank
and the Bank of France are expected to keep interest rates steady.
German shares headed higher and were seen building on gains
as a stronger dollar and healthy cash availability defeated any gloom from
continued losses on some Asian stock markets, dealers said.
Yahoo
WORLD
Markets Thursday January 8, 5:37
am Eastern Time
Indonesia's military calls on people
not to panic
JAKARTA, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's powerful
military on Thursday urged the public not to panic over the meltdown in
the country's financial markets.
`` It is easy to say it, but have faith that the
government is trying its best to handle the crisis,'' the official Antara
news agency quoted Lieutenant General Yunus
Yosfiah, the head of the socio-political affairs division of the military,
as saying.
Antara said he made the comments to reporters
when asked about the Rupiah plunge against the dollar earlier on Thursday.
The rupiah fell about 19 percent on Thursday, and
was quoted at an all-time low of 10,000 to the dollar late in the afternoon.
The fall sparked panic buying of food and other
essentials in Jakarta and elsewhere in the country, as people feared a
round of
sharp price increases, witnesses
said.
Italian shares were bucking the trend, storming
ahead to new all-time highs after Tuesday's Epiphany market holiday.
The
Mibtel index was up one percent at 17,959 points.
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The potential for economic declines in Asia is worse than
people think," Jones said, noting the effects
would
not be seen until the second half of the year. "What it will do is have
a direct affect on exports and there will be a flood
of Asian goods coming into the U.S. at lower prices... That will weaken
U.S. business's pricing power and squeeze profit margins
significantly."
Consequently, as stock prices erode, wealth contracts and
consumer spending slows in response,
leading to bond
yields of 5.5 percent and lower.
"You have got a standoff -- weaker earnings and lower (bond)
yields," Jones said. "But the earnings
effect will override
the interest rate effect."
Asia's impact has not been lost on Alan Greenspan.
The Fed
chief last week told the Senate Budget
Committee that
the extent will not be known until the spring and the turmoil in Asia has
given the Fed some breathing room.
The U.S. economy
has "as yet experienced only the peripheral winds of the
Asian crisis," Greenspan said.
Economists said the impact should last well into 1999, since
virtually the only way Asia can recover is
to go into
recession to reverse its large current account deficits.
02/03 04:55 FEATURE-Turmoil to cut 0.5 pct or more from
US GDP
By Steven Scheer
NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Economic troubles in Asia are
expected to curb U.S. growth in
1998, but not too substantially,
as any negative impact should be partially offset by effects from lower
interest rates.
But analysts caution that despite various forecasts of 0.5
to 1.0 point shaved from U.S. gross
domestic product
(GDP) as a result of the so-called Asian-flu, it is still early and the
full impact will not be known until later in the year.
Some signs of slowing have started to emerge.
The National
Association of Purchasing Management
(NAPM) on Monday
reported its third straight drop in its manufacturing index in January.
The new
orders index rose, suggesting solid domestic
orders.
The export component fell to its lowest level in two years
and prices measure dropped three points,
indicating
Asia's impact has begun to be felt.
Economists said exports should slow considerably more while
inflation will remain tame due to imports
of cheaper
Asian goods
Wall Street has been lifted by a strong batch of earnings
and the absence of further shocks out of
Washington
and Asia.
---------------------------------------------------------------
``
The background was positive today but the market is finding progress
hard,'' one dealer said.
01/30 08:42
INSTANT
VIEW-US stocks to open up after GDP leap
NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were expected to open
higher after a stronger-than-expected 4.3 percent hike in real gross
domestic product growth in the fourth quarter.
Wall Street economists had expected a 3.7 percent hike.
The following are analysts' comments: