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Global Markets; Market !
Feb 8th 1999

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use wiredbrain and "any topic"GlobalVillage Excite NewsSearch

Since 3/15/1995 ( about 100 per day - 50 % of actual count )

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- T h e Best short term timer & F i n a n c i a l W e a t h e r R e p o r t -
The N E W S b e f o r e i t h a p p e n s

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Warning: DOWN 40 to 50 to 1200

It would be hard to deny that the rising cost of senior benefits is one of the biggest challenges facing national policymakers in the twenty-first century. How to control that cost ought to be a central issue in the presidential campaign. But the candidates are apparently more comfortable talking about intangibles like values and leadership than about fundamental resource trade-offs. And when they do raise concrete policy issues, from school standards to law enforcement, the issues are often ones over which, unlike senior benefits, the federal government can exercise little direct control."[ 25 % children and youth, 55 % labor pool ( 120 million working of 154 or 80 % working others in school, mothers at home and unemployed ) , 16 % elderly and the rest 5 % disabled or in jail etc. to 22 % children, 47 % labor pool, 27 % over 65 - ] Today’s school children could face a very good labor market if they get basic skill and are ready for the knowledge age.
The higher cost of labor should push technology as we become more capital intensive. Fewer workers creating a larger economy should mean higher wages if the system is not dragged down by benefits.

Private saving increase investment and growth - government benefits decrease saving, work, and investment and therefore drag the economy down. Retirement could be shifted to private savings and investment by subsidies of 401 ( k ) and IRA for more and more people. For the poor 100 % support, declining twice as fast for each higher decile of median income - .i.e.. if you are at the 20 % level of all incomes you get a 60 % subsidy , 30% from the bottom gives is 40 % support level - of $100 in retirement ( or health benefits ) and the government gives you $ 40 toward your retirement.
The support ends at 50 % or the median income, half higher, half lower.

Then additional public benefits could be means tested and budgeted rather than an open check book system.
The Social Security and Medicare Trust fund could be transferred to the Federal Reserve - who would appoint trustees who would invest the funds like any other retirement fund such as the California States Employees fund. Current beneficiaries would be held harmless ( grandfather clause ) - and health benefits would be a fixed amount with choices such as the Federal Employees Health Plan with again a more support for the poor. Pay more get more is not a new idea, competition and benefit / cost analysis as in every other aspect of life. No free lunch. If health care is not paid for by the client ( but a third party ) and the doctor benefits from services - it will be too expensive.
The trade imbalance is related to investment in that we are importing foreign cash to balance our export of US dollars to buy foreign goods. Increased local savings will lower interest rates - by increasing the supply of money - and reduce the attraction of foreign investment. This will force an orderly decline in the overpriced dollar - make imports more expensive and exports cheaper. I think Ross Parot could explain it with charts but Protection is not the answer.

The gender gap is because unmarried women ( I will fight for you ) need more outside support including government help and feel ( without fathers or husbands ) more insecure than married women and many men.
They have to feel that paying down the debt, setting social security on a really sound footing, providing medical care, education and other critical public services is safe for them. ( No risky schemes ) and have less concern with tax cuts and ideological motivations.
They have to take care of children, often the elderly or are elderly themselves - they know where the tire hits the road and don't want any fancy machine going too fast on unsafe tires. After the Democratic convention, Al Gore reasserted his lead over Republican George W. Bush among women, with a margin of 15 points or more in some polls, while making the race close among men.

There are a couple of big issues that could be debated and move the country forward in preparation for the coming crisis .
The overhang of benefits for the aged - In 1935 less 2.3 million were born and have reached 65 in 2000- in 1950 over four million were born and will reach 65 in 2015 - the current benefit is over $10,000 for Medicare and more for Social Security and going up with inflation and with more medical services the total will climb from the current about $ 400 billion ( $ 215 Medicare) to $ 1.2 trillion - 4.2 % of GNP up from 2 % for Medicare. ( Health care is 14 % of GNP )
http://www.lib.umich.edu/libhome/Documents.center/stats.html
The numbers go from 33 million beneficiaries to 60 million or 13 % to 27 %, ( children are 25 % of the population or 75 million ) , workers paying in decline from 130 million ( 45 % ) 5 workers to 1 retired to 120 or 2 to 1 worker to retired.
The cost will be 85 % of the current taxes / budget base and 20 % to 40 % of all earned income at 1.2 Trillion ( $ 1,200,000,000.00 ) or 10 % of the projected 12 trillion GDP rather quickly.
http://concordcoalition.org/

THE MISSING ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN"

Last month, the CBO released a study that tallies up federal spending on the elderly and children. It shows that, per capita, spending on the elderly towers seven-to-one over spending on kids, and that, overall, it consumes 35 percent of the budget. This is before the age wave even begins to roll in. By 2050, according to the White House, the major senior benefit programs will consume an incredible 84 percent of budget outlays.
Finance Physics:

Of course, market prices are the result of foggy feeling, mass psychology called perceptions. BUT, over the longer run, basic economic principles and the laws of social physics will "correct" the difference between false perceptions and a harder reality.

In the
current context the following will happen - the only question is when:

1.)
The misbalance between American growth and ECU’s struggles, Japan’s and Asia’s problems put pressure on the dollar because of the trade gap:

2.) Raw declines in the dollar forces increases in the interest rates dollar securities have to pay;

3.)
The higher cost of capital slows U.S. growth rates and forces a market "correction" of the irrational exuberance of speculative
stocks. We're moving toward a world of 1 billion connected computers sometime in the next decade," Grove said, saying it would represent some 20 percent of the world's population and a great opportunity" for the Pacific Rim.
The theme of "wiredbrain" is that the "new world orders" are global connections between utility network computers.

Like the human brain, the
internet's packets system can reconfigure itself to work even after portions were destroyed. Using the noise-prone analog circuits of the time, it was impossible to build the necessary switches. Baran concluded that all the traffic would have to be digital. Moreover, the digital traffic would have to be broken into short message blocks now called

"packets,"

each containing its own routing information,
like a DNA molecule, and able to replicate itself correctly whenever a transmission error occurred. With many additions and permutations, his original design is today termed the Internet, click here for the emerging history
of the 21st century.

Technology is going to make the world around us smart

as we move away from proprietary architectures to a standards-based ecology of information.

We still need a name for the UCD: UNIVERSAL COMMUNICATION DEVICE or "information - communications - appliance - utility- network computer, cable or wireless black box modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ), play station, boom box, CD, DVD, VHS, camera, VCR, telephone, wireless, cordless, portable, TV, radio, pager, laptop, notebook, library, GPS, map, yellow pages, combat walk and talk and call in air strikes more".

The market for the bandwidth and the appliances is global - with billions of clients world wide.

Click here for the emerging history
of the 21st century.

Britain's Keele University, and from Cavendish Management Resources (CMR), of a "3-D Memory System" that promises 3.4 terabytes in a device the size of a credit card it costing about $48!!

Fast transportable records means a whole new world of record keeping and economic transactions. Indeed the time has come for
Global Money as well as communications.

The concept of a virtual organization - of a transitory network of individuals coupled together by advanced communications technologies - continues to grow in prominence. However, a lack of detailed, real-world cases poses a significant problem when attempting to analyze the business potential of linking remote workers in patterns of
virtual organization. Such a lack of examples is particularly acute within the small business sector. A case study of a UK-based SME - Cavendish Management Resources - is presented. Both practical and theoretical insights into new flexible
patterns of organization in the small business sector are presented.FROM
http://www.digital.com/rcfoc/

The money is in software now moving from "programs" to content.
The content will be interactive media that includes program functions. ISP such as AOL, will provide multimedia E-mail as a word processor that can handle graphics, photographs, soon video and data files.
The browser becomes a universal systems package do all the most common functions as plug-ins.
Which is what StarOffice 5 does. It is a free download from Sun microsystems at

http://www.sun.com/

The USB universal serial bus ties to printers, sound and video systems, play stations, phones, keyboards and voice commands, other appliances and services. Microsoft-NBC-General Electric, merge into a convergence of media and communications services. Time-Warner, the News Corp., Disney-ABC, are positioning themselves for the transformation of many business into one.
The current crop of Internet stocks are unlikely to be very important.

Other business includes finance, matching buyers and sellers, and a thousand other ideas and items.
The ISP becomes a bank and travel agent, department store, and service center. Wal-mart, Sears and other may need their own ISP. Clients will pay the ISP for telephone service, cable, lease of hardware, Internet, credit, and may buy their insurance, tickets, or dishes from a company they trust, so it all adds up.

A limited set of functions and libraries in or around a CPU, with the capacities of a play station, will run a package of on demand utilities called from the network. Once there is a break in the bandwidth, your browser can quickly call down any packages it may need - high speed smart updates means you don’t have to have everything stored. Office systems can do this now but are afraid to be pioneers with arrows in their backs. Once Sun, Oracle, IBM or others really have high performance objective networks there will be no need for the bloated windows operation systems.

The market often is as slow as the political process in facing the inevitable forces of technology and social history. Cartels and semi-monopolies are the natural outcome of free competition because organizations can join together to control markets.

The robber barons of the late 19th and early 20th century, such as Morgan, Carnegie, Mellon, Rockefeller, Stanford, Dupont controlled steel and oil, railroads and chemicals. General Motors president Alfred P. Sloan worked with the du Pont's to control the auto market. A U.S. Court of Appeals finds that Aluminum Co. of America (Alcoa) held a 90 percent monopoly in U.S. aluminum ingot production before the war, a monopoly enjoyed by the Mellons for more than half a century. See RCA (NBC - Victor ) below..

Sun's McNealy portrays perils of running the Wintel 'gauntlet' ) ( Windows/intel )

http://www.excite.com/computers_and_internet/tech_news/zdnet/?article=zdnews2.inp

Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems Inc., one could easily draw the conclusion that most of the ills in the computer industry stem from one company and one company only.

The charismatic McNealy used large portions of his keynote address here Thursday at Sun's JavaOne developers conference, as well as a subsequent press conference, to paint Microsoft Corp. as a ruthless monopoly destroying companies and promoting a flawed business model.

"
The market economy works until somebody gets so much market power that they are beyond market principles," he said.

McNealy said Microsoft's monopoly on the desktop through the Windows operating system enables it to sell "bloat" like Office 2000 that people have to buy.

"
The other opportunity it has is to go out and buy little companies that wouldn't normally be successful, bundle them into their Windows or Office hairball and use their lock-in and monopoly leverage to make them successful and drive everyone else out of business," McNealy said. "That makes everybody want to sell their company for a price lower than they want to because if you're not the one bought, you're done."

One of the best examples of how new technologies can be dominated by powerful forces that control standards was the companion development of hardware ( Radios, phonographs, and then television ) as well as soft ware, the programming, records and content necessary to sell the product. People won’t buy radios or TV if there are no stations, there can’t be stations until people have radios or TVs. RCA supported the networks in order to sell radios.
Then they made more from the broadcasting then they did from hardware.

Sarnoff, David, 1891–1971, American radio and television pioneer; b. Russia. He worked for the Marconi Wireless Co., winning recognition as the narrator of the Titanic disaster (1912). After the Radio Corp. of America absorbed (1921) Marconi, Sarnoff became general manager. As president (after 1930) and chairman of the board (from 1947) of RCA, he played a major role in the development of television.

A superheterodyne circuit developed by U.S. Army Signal Corps major Edwin Howard Armstrong, 26, became the basic design for all amplitude modulation (AM) radios. It greatly increases the selectivity and sensitivity of radio receivers over a wide band of frequencies (see 1906; FM, 1933). Radio Corp. of America (RCA) was founded by Owen D. Young (see 1919) who loans Ernst Alexanderson to RCA which will employ him as chief engineer for 5 years (see 1906). RCA acquired the Victor Co. and become a radio-phonograph colossus but anti-trust court actions will separate RCA from GE (see VICTROLA, 1906; NBC, 1926). David Sarnoff urges marketing of a simple "radio music box."
The American Marconi Co. says his plan will make the radio "a ‘household utility’ in the same sense as the piano or phonograph" (see 1912; 1920).

American radio and television pioneer who proposed the first commercial radio receiver and in 1926 formed the National Broadcasting Company.
The first vinylite phonograph record appears in October. RCA-Victor issues a new recording of the 1895 Richard Strauss work Till Eulenspiegels Lustige Streiche, but vinylite will not displace shellac until the perfection of long-playing records (see 1948).

Something missing:

An astro-physicist has said ‘ there is no reason that people should be ever be able to understand the universe’. Our biological and intellectual background is so naturally limited by our life experience here on Earth. We have no way of comprehending or visioning space time plasma that behaves in ways impossibly strange to our ways of being and knowing. Atomic physics involves models that are not intuitive - even counter- intuitive.

Most people who have ever lived on this planet, were born and died within a fifty mile range.
Their perceptions are defined within what is called a tribal culture - part real and part superstition. Applied rational knowledge is fairly modern as a cultural style and still not seriously or firmly established as a norm.
The irrational base of human understanding is clearly demonstrated by politics and commercials.

NOW as we enter into a global technical society our social world is as little understood as the physical.
The new world order - lacks a vision or social psychological foundation. ]

The technology itself is
revolutionary.

The global economy requires new models of thought. It’s not surprising that it is difficult and there is a lot of active and passive resistance.
The leaders and leading institutions often don’t get it. Non-linear, transactional, mutually dependent rapid change appears to many as anarchy and chaos - morally questionable and in conflict with traditional values. That is because global transformations are a real revolution. Serious changes are disruptive of the existing order.

the short term is well into over bought
conditions

Rising interest rates, oil prices and declining profits is a good reason for a 5 % correction after 6 weeks of rally but markets hit a new peak as cash buyers keep coming. Shares eased as the bourse consolidated after another record-breaking run.

Resistance at Dow 9,250 and SP500 1250 - NASDAQ 2400

WIREDBRAIN'S PORTFOLIO Wiredbrain high at 195 now181
50% to 65 % gains in less than 4 months ( up from 25 % in Jan )

Support at Dow 8500, - 5 %, 1050 on the SP500, NASDAQ at 1700
( sell: go short ) We, at the height, are ready to decline.

There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,

Or lose our ventures.

S&P 500 future

Current E-MINI .

Fair value fo
r June S&Ps

E-MINI JUN98 cash
less price of premium - 10 = CASH

GO TO CURRENT UPDATES

Current NSDQ100 JUN98 [13 premium ] = Cash

Bottom Line:

Market is unstable at top of wave and expected to be UP and DOWN. Starrting in Nov. Good news on main street was no longer bad news on Wall street. Rapid growth did not require higher interest rates and lower stock prices. Now is bad news on main street and in Asia good for stocks or not ?

Greenspan was misquoted. What he said was he doubted productivity due to technology could repeal the business cycle - he said investors seem to believe growth was endless ( and they may not be completely wrong ) but... the premium on this belief was just that, a price above real values based on a belief which is unproved. WASHINGTON, April 2 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday linked the U.S. stock market's spectacular rise to optimism about corporate earnings and belief in a productivity revolution driven by new technology.( an idea, which he understood but did not support. You can see why he tries to be so careful and is still misquoted, the talk was at the American Press Club - what do you expect ! )

---------- G o to Wiredbrain's
ACTIVE-NEWS PAGE

Full text of Moody's announcement on Japan

See
networks.htm

A number of the world's largest banks are insolvent, or have a negative net worth.

Nikkei 225 15679.32 YEN 134.6

We previously said that earnings growth would slow substantially in 1998, and indeed it has. We thought that would limit the upside potential, but so far the market has preferred to remain speculative rather than to react to the fundamentals. If earnings growth remains sluggish in the second half of the year, then the market may have limited upside, and may even correct. To sustain the rally in the second half, earnings growth will have to rebound sharply to the near 15% that was common for 1995+1997.

It may be April Fool's Day, but we're not kidding: the P/E on the S&P 500 is now over 27. That is using the past 12 month earnings on an "as reported" basis, which as regular readers know, is the best way to assess valuation according to
Briefing. Using operating earnings, the P/E of the S&P 500 is a mere 24.5.

What makes this particularly remarkable is that fact that First Call was in the news yesterday saying that the consensus estimate for first quarter earnings now calls for just a 0.7% growth from the first quarter of 1997. No growth.
Considering that the estimates have been moving steadily lower and that the early reports (see COMS and ADBE) suggest that more companies than usual may miss expectations, there is a very good chance that we could end up with negative first quarter profit growth.

Meanwhile, the market keeps going up, in part because this earnings slowdown is supposed to be temporary. Today, the first day of the second calendar quarter, it is also worth noting that earnings estimates for the second quarter have dropped from 12.9% to 6.7% according to First Call. Here's hoping the third quarter is damn good.

Day trading is fine, but we are comfortable not joining the party line that stock prices will keep going up simply because money keeps flowing in, i.e., that April 1, 1999 unquestionably will be an even greater day than April 1, 1998. That argument need not take heed of earnings. We will keep the sentiment reading on hold for now.

OIL INDEX -

OIL UP and down

Markets

AHEAD TODAY:

LINKS: all the major connections

Invest-O-Rama!

-
The top-rated Invest-O-Rama! site features an annotated, categorized directory of thousands of financial Web sites, in dozens of categories.
The directories are arranged in an easy-to-navigate format to enable investors to quickly find information on a particular topic anywhere on the Web. Augmenting this extensive directory are regular feature articles on varied investing and financial topics, educational articles and tutorials, a "Research a Stock" feature that provides links to 75 sites with information on any publicly-traded company, and a directory of web sites of publicly-traded corporations from around the world.

TODAY'S
TRADE :

GO TO CURRENT UPDATES

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ACTIVE-NEWS PAGE

DJIA DJ INDUSTRIAL (REU:^DJI)

http://cboe.pcquote.com/cgi-bin/cboeget.exe?TICKER=. DJXQJ++++++

MSQQQ MSFT May8 85.0 PUT By 1105 GMT, Microsoft shares were indicated over $5 higher at $90.

08:31 MONTHLY TRADE GAP HIGHEST SINCE SERIES BEGAN IN 1992.
Last week and Monday:

FUTURES MARKET

"
The U.S. chip industry has become the leading contributor to the nation's gross domestic product among all manufacturing sectors,"

Follow the $SOX

"
The evidence in
this study is indisputable.
The tiny microchip has done more to create jobs, increase incomes, generate economic growth and add value to other products than any product in America," calling semiconductors, "the railroads, automobile, telecommunications or crude oil of the Information Age."

How future will close

``
There's still some end-of-quarter window-dressing going on and if we're heading for a big correction it won't be until then (the end of the quarter),'' said one dealer.
The settlement date for most trading was last week - many last minute trades are not recorded in this quarter but next.

FREE FORECAST AND ADVICE

S&P 500 index
The expected values of the index are 1093 and 1109 for April 17 and May 15.

NOON

Moneynet

WIREDBRAIN'S PORTFOLIO Wiredbrain high at 200 now185
50% to 65 % gains in less than 4 months ( up from 20 % a few weeks ago )

Also my.yahoo.com user "wiredbrain" password "synergy"

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/america.html

There is a need to
check for last minute changes
CME

Alternative site http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Trails/4333/money.htm

News and analysis GO TO Money pages first
forecast.htm, then
conditions.htm

GO TO CURRENT UPDATES
---------- G o to Wiredbrain's
ACTIVE-NEWS PAGE

Wiredbrain's Index Summary, =
*-8.50

FORMULA:

FROM +9.5 to -9.5 (
Confidence )

The higher the WI score the higher the probability of being right.
The wiredbrain index (WI) score is close to points on the S&P500 but are not points but the summation vector on the strength of

different market forces.

Higher Interest rates, lower profits, pressure on the dollar but they are going UP !
The stock market and bonds are going up because of lower rates, the dollar is going up because of higher rates - who is right ?

The decline of other currencies, the financial crisis, has made the dollar the international media of exchange- the demand comes from all over to conduct transactions everywhere. For example producers in many countries have to buy their raw materials in dollars, or gold, (DM, Yen or pounds, Franks, SF, ECU's ) as their own currencies are no longer accepted. Up to 50 % of the USA money supply growth is used internationally. This means the US Fed has become the global central bank. Global conditions require continued increases in supply by open market actions - Central banks increase the money supply by changes in the ratio of cash to treasury bonds in its' own accounts and by the requirements it sets for member banks.

Increasing bond holding and sopping up cash are actions designed to bring short term rates up to the target 5.5 %. This constrain of money growth increases interest rate and the value of the dollar - ( reduce supply vs. increased demand) which lowers the prices of imports and raises the prices of exports. Is it better to have a "little" inflation than global deflation or depression ? Real inflation raises interest rates and may control the over priced currency. Since the central bank is the agent of the banking system it will do what is in the interests of bankers - liquidity, stability, profits. Don't be surprised by a surprise - because you have to expect the unexpected. Rates are too low, markets too high and need to have an orderly retreat.

The world needs a true international currency - because conflicts between domestic and international conditions make it very difficult for the nation with the 'reserve' currency.
The Bank of England was plagued by these problems when the pound was a major reserve currency. Now the US needs to raise rates, reduce the rate of money supply growth and slow down, while much of the world needs expansion and more $'s. No easy choices, US Treasuries end lower, rates up, ahead of FOMC meeting

All in the eyes of the beholder - preception is reality

A market collapse and economic meltdown is an outcome of choice-one which humanity brings upon itself by becoming frivolous, emotional, and greedy about their investing, and by continuing this behavior as if the good times will never end.
This is a fear-based response to change, and as such, their greed and state of denial eventually cause the very thing they fear: an end to the good times and a lack of wealth. But by embracing the business cycle, humanity can instead plan on the "downs" along with the "ups" like it plans for night after day, winter after autumn. An awareness of the mistakes being made can help prevent or mitigate them in the future, and deal with them more favorably now. Free choice brought these problems on, and that same free choice can be utilized to solve them.

A Product of Global Market Strategists, Inc.®

Deregulation - power what next ?

The way electric power is being deregulated is a model of a 21st Information Technology (IT) that will dominate the global economy.
The model works like this:

PROVIDERS: Primary and secondary - ( out of the ground and refined )
the producers of oil, coal, and electric power, computers, software, music, games, news, information, movies and shows, office, restrurant and kitchen supplies, tools, clothes, food, chips, banking and travel services and all kinds of "commodities" goods and services on a global basis.

THE MARKET:
An exchange where "spot" prices are set on a minute to minute basis for oil, telecommunications, electric power, airline seats, computers and parts, interest rates, insurance, mortgage money, communications minutes or bits and bytes, water, storage space, computer services ( server space ), main frame time etc. etc.

NETWORKS: Common carriers
Power lines, ships, pipes, railings, trucks, airplanes and air ports, US post office, UPS, Fedex, storehouses, phone lines, cable lines, air time, broadband, wideband, pipes and channels, satellite connections, the distribution systems.

USERS:
Network computers, power users, communication users, banking, travel customers, buyers of office supplies, computes or parts, money and credit, both individuals and groups - big and small.

LINKERS- CONNECTIONS:
Network providers which connect big and little users to providers, buy at whole sale on the "market" and sell via distribution networks. AOL, book stores, worldcom, Microsoft, GE, Motorola, and many new IT companies.

I nfoseek search

Friday March 27, 8:48 am Eastern Time

U.S. incomes up solidly in February, savings rise ( now why this is a surprise, is a surprise ! ) With 300,000 + new jobs every month and labor shortages it would follow that total income is going up - and saving and investment has a high marginal rate on higher incomes. As more people have more money they buy more IRA, retirement, and stocks and funds. This creates a demand. As the demand pushes up prices - people buy more because they think they are doing well -
The real return on investment doesn't matter only capital gains. It's the same in real estate and other SPECULATIVE investments until the bubble, the balloon bursts or at least lets out a little hot air.

WASHINGTON, March 27 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers received a solid boost in their incomes during February, the Commerce Department said on Friday, but raised their spending modestly and socked more into savings.

Incomes rose 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $7.135 trillion after a matching 0.6 percent rise in January. But spending on all types of goods and services increased only 0.4 percent to $5.659 trillion last month, down from a 0.7 percent jump in January.

Consumers saved more in February, choosing to put 4.3 cents out of each dollar earned into STOCKs and bank accounts or other savings vehicles, up from 4.2 cents in January.
The department said it was the strongest savings rate since a matching 4.3 cents was saved in June last year.
The last time the savings rate was stronger was in September 1996 when it reached 4.8 cents out of each dollar.

Steady increases in personal income are vital for fueling the spending on goods and services that accounts for two-thirds of national economic activity. Vigorous hiring that has kept unemployment low and boosted paychecks has kept incomes growing steadily, suggesting a healthy foundation for continued economic expansion.

08:32 GDP GROWTH FOR FULL YEAR: +3.8%.
08:31 4Q IMPORTS +5.3%, AFTER +14.6% IN 3Q.
08:31 4Q EXPORTS +8.3%, AFTER +4.4% IN 3Q.
08:31 CONSUMER SPENDING +2.5% IN 4Q, AFTER +5.6% IN 3Q.
08:31 GDP PRICE DEFLATOR UNREVISED AT 1.4.
08:30 1997 CORP. PROFITS +$69.1BLN, OR 9.4%, AFTER +13% IN 96.
08:30 4Q CORP. PROFITS FELL $9.2BLN AFTER 3Q RISE OF $32.3BLN.
08:30 GDP REVISED DOWN TO 3.7% IN 4Q.

In what analysts warned might be a foreshadowing of worse to come as Asia's economic woes shrink export sales, after-tax profits tumbled 2.3 percent in the three months from October through December, the biggest drop in nearly four years.

Financial markets showed little initial reaction to the final fourth-quarter GDP figure, though by the end of the day the bellwether 30-year bond had slipped $4.38 per $1,000 of face value while the yield, which moves in the opposite direction, kicked up to 5.97 percent from Wednesday's close of 5.94 percent.

Oil ended up 35 cents at $16.83 a gallon after trading briefly above $17 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A week ago, oil traded below $13, at the lowest level since 1988.

Bonds were weaker following a dip in U.S. Treasuries, while the dollar steadied more than one percent above its overnight lows against the yen as traders awaited more details of Japan's economic stimulus plans.

Back channel:

It is called the Asian Financial crisis. It started with Soros attach on over valued currencies.
The fundamentals are caused by economies built with combines of companies, banks, and public supports.
The Japanese model is groups of companies built on traditional alliances working together with their own banks and in close collaboration with the government.
These systems of state capitalism are heavily dependent on technocrats in the treasury and trade departments of government. Short term profits are not the bottom line but market share and growth into new markets.
These combines had the will, almost unlimited low cost capital, and the technology to make the Asian tigers real competitors in the global market place. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore have more smaller independent companies and are a little different but Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and even China are based on families and families of companies.
The big German banks are also associated with groups of cartels with government support. We have GE, GM, Dupont and the links between Chase Bank, Met life, and the Standard oil empires of the Rockefellers.

The "problem" arises form the financial position of these great combines. Many have negative net worth which means the group bank, which holds as assets the loans and stocks of the members of the group, these banks are insolvent and the world banking, insurance and other financial institutions which holds the loans against the assets of the major Asian banks ( among the world’s largest ) have increased risk. In order to stabilize the situation U.S. treasurers are being sold for dollars to keep up with debt payments, the IMF is supplying replacement credits, governments are replacing private debt with sovereign issues, and costs are being cut.
The only way these companies have of getting more cash is aggressive foreign sales and market share. Except for China, domestic markets are weak and getting weaker. World central banks have a vital interest in the global banking system.
They have to adjust to stronger import unbalanced for a long time against weaker exports, in order to preserve the system.
The alternative global deflation is a lot worse. This means they have to increase the money supply to take account of crisis generated demand for "easy" credit, maintain domestic demand both for local and imported products, and accept mild inflationary pressures. If they were to tighten, reduce demand, create a anti-import political back lash, or get into competitive currency devaluation’s, all hell could break out as it did in the 1930's.. Both sides of a debt crisis have no where to go but to promote growth and try to inflate their way out of the box.

US market could decline while Europe and Asia rally ( the reverse of flight to quality) out of 15 ( 20 points but 15 scale)

Technologies 4X market

IXCO SOX MSH PSE NDX up 2X market

Pause in
Asia's DOWN and Europe's close to record high ( US Germany France London ) Markets in Asia DOWN 2 % Korea DOWN from 530 to 463 12 %: 15,850. the current price is 15709.39 -532.27 -3.28% Nikkei 225 15500 YEN 134.6
South Korea Seoul Composite ^KS11 1:41AM 434.45 +19.21 -4.2 %

Europe UP near new highs :
bonds at 5.75 %
bonds UP, interest DOWN well off lows of 5.65 and off high of 6.2 on money supply, oil prices and action of open market committee bring short term rates back up from 5 % to target 5.5%.
Currencies (dollar) rally UP , pound down from rally over 1.67, Yen over 133- in a tight range in a
POSITIVE FX market - (on scale from +15 to +15).

**Confidence levels: (+ or - numbers -) (WI * 3.25) + 50 = Confidence % 3.5 * 3.25 +50 = 61.475 %

0 = 50 % ( 50/50 ) 3.5 = 61.5 % 5.5 = 67.875 % 6.5 = 71.125 % 7.5 = 74.375 % 10 = 82.5 % 15 = 90 % 15 + = 95 %

Reports of weaker profits, dollar and bonds, due to trade imbalances increased by relative prices, oil imports, and productivity are beginning to show up a little.**
The further unwinding of the flight to quality forced sales of US bonds causing higher interest, a weaker dollar, because of declines in exports, slower growth and reduced profits and higher costs of skilled labor.

08:31 MONTHLY TRADE GAP HIGHEST SINCE SERIES BEGAN IN 1992.

Increased imports and lower exports are reflections of high domestic production costs vs. lower cost of imports. Europe and Japan benefit/costs more from the lower oil prices.
Basic faults in public policy and process undermine the US's international economic position.

Asia ex Japan - will have the best net return over the next 3 months as China does now, : remarkable Global Momentum continues- More demand for stocks than supply will drive up under priced foreign markets - High somewhere around S&P500 at 1070,
GOING DOWN GOING UP look at this....
LINKS: all the major connections

Support Level key 200 day low now near old high of 985.

YAHOO MARKETS

WIREDBRAIN'S PORTFOLIO

**UP + [ TrADE * INDEX ] - DOWN

After-noon top of wave look to go short IF and only if and when Technology
turns down

Technologies NEWS & INDEX

SAFE TRADE UP or hold long on three or more * and + 6.5 index enter on UP target S&P500 1065

SAFE TRADE DOWN down or hold on three or more : enter on three or more - 6.5 WI ( index) down target S&P500 955

Follow the $SOX often up or down twice as much as market

MORGAN STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH) and the
NDX

If the
NDX goes down ( it's going with the
$SOX ):

TRADE at 10:30 AM -
INDEX PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update*

News and analysis GO TO Money pages first
forecast.htm, then
conditions.htm

---------- G o to Wiredbrain's
ACTIVE-NEWS PAGE

TO TO CURRENT UPDATES will be done at 6, 8 and 10 PM the day before and updated with action in Europe at 6 AM and 9 AM just before the market opens with news and bond prices.
Wiredbrain's book markets

Company Profits Skid in Growing Q4 Economy

By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Corporate profits skidded lower in the final quarter of last year, squeezed by competition and higher costs despite a healthy pace of U.S. economic growth, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

In what analysts warned might be a foreshadowing of worse to come as Asia's economic woes shrink export sales, after-tax profits tumbled 2.3 percent in the three months from October through December, the biggest drop in nearly four years.

The pressure on balance sheets came as Gross Domestic Product, the broadest measure of national economic activity, grew at a still-robust 3.7 percent annual rate, down from the 3.9 percent reported a month ago.

"It appears that we are observing a significant shift toward a deterioration in profit performance," said economist Lynn Reaser of NationsBank Inc. in Jacksonville, Fla. "Until the fourth quarter, they had been able to offset wage and other cost pressures with rising productivity, but no more."

Analysts said the trend in 1998 clearly was toward slower overall economic growth, likely in the range of between 2 percent and 2.5 percent after 1997's 3.8 percent surge, and renewed belt-tightening by companies trying to limit erosion of their profits.

On Wednesday, analysts said office equipment giant Xerox Corp. was planning a major restructuring that could cost 10,000 jobs.

The fourth-quarter profits drop -- to an after-tax annual rate of $483.7 billion -- was the first falloff since a 0.6 percent decrease in the third quarter of 1996 and the biggest quarterly profits drop since a 3.7 percent decline in the first three months of 1994.

Moving forward into 1998, weaker exports sales are expected to send the U.S. trade deficit soaring and keep a damper on profits, since a costly U.S. dollar has made imports cheaper and kept a lid on U.S. companies' ability to raise prices.

"
The first quarter has been littered with reports of write-downs and earnings disappointments by firms doing business in Asia," said economist Mark Vitner of First Union Corp. in Charlotte, N.C.

"Slower corporate profits will work to reduce overall growth by cutting into capital spending and new hiring," he added.
The Federal Reserve has speculated that an Asian-induced slowdown might be helpful in restraining the pace of growth so that inflation pressures are kept under control.

Separately Thursday, the Labor Department reported that the number of newly idled workers filing for unemployment benefits edged up by 4,000 in the week ended March 21 to the highest level in a month.

Nonetheless, the four-week moving average, which smooths out seasonal variations, eased to 306,500 from 308,250 a week earlier, indicating tight labor markets.

Fed policy-makers are scheduled to meet on Tuesday to plot interest-rate strategy amid expectations they will keep policy steady until it is more apparent whether the U.S. economy's brisk momentum at the start of 1998 was being braked by Asia.

"Inevitably, we're going to grow more slowly in 1998," said David Kelly, an economist with Primark Decision Economics Inc. in Boston, likely in the range of 2.5 percent to 3 percent annually with a further declaration to 2 percent to 2.5 percent as the year wears on.

But with strong job creation, rising wages, a strong stock market and low interest rates, analysts saw little or no chance the U.S. expansion that entered its eighth year this month was at risk.

"This economy is exceptionally stable," Kelly said, "Even with the Asian slowdown it would take a huge shock to derail the economy and put it into recession and we don't see it."

In a measure of the stress Asian economies are experiencing, by contrast, a quarterly Treasury Bulletin issued on Thursday showed heavy selling of U.S. Treasuries in the fourth quarter, presumably to raise dollars for defending their currencies.

South Korea sold $4.27 billion worth of U.S. government bonds and notes, Indonesia $1.88 billion and Thailand $229 million. Even Japan, the largest single investor in U.S. Treasury securities, sold a net $8.48 billion worth, more than double the $3.63 billion it sold in the third quarter.

Financial markets showed little initial reaction to the final fourth-quarter GDP figure, though by the end of the day the bellwether 30-year bond had slipped $4.38 per $1,000 of face value while the yield, which moves in the opposite direction, kicked up to 5.97 percent from Wednesday's close of 5.94 percent.

Blue chip shares on the New York Stock Exchange lost 25.91 points, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing at 8,846.89. Evidence of pressure on corporate profits could put a crimp in recent strong market gains.

Inflation remained mute as 1997 ended, with the fourth-quarter GDP price index and the implicit price deflator each advancing only 1.4 percent, the same as previously reported and the same as in the third quarter.

There will be a fee for service, as of now user is"wiredbrain" password "synergy" Last week our server in Wisconsin, was down so it's important to bookmark the
http://www.wiredbrain.net/

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visit

WIREDBRAIN'S PORTFOLIO 50% to 65 % gains in less than 4 months ( up from 20 % a few weeks ago )**

* FIRST: ( 30 %)

FORMULA: SEE CHART ( average of markets )

**4[(.00005.0135) ^(2* .0135)]=2.73

Where .0135 is the average change in critical foreign markets. In Japan the banks, insurance companies and the government run the market UP before the close of their FY so the banks can show they are solvent since stocks are a large part of their assets. In the family of trading groups ( see networks.htm ) dozens of companies and their family bank own the majority of each others stock.

World Markets ( 7 )**
IXA index of worldmarkets - .5 %

EUR 100 index

TOP Europe 100

- 2.5 IXA LA & Asia + 1.0 Europe add Eastern Europe and Latin America = - 1.5 on major markets, ( out of 7 )

Bloomberg MARKETS

LINKS all the major connections
---------------------------------------------------------------

Yahoo International not working this morning go to
my.yahoo.com sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the individual stock picks for the next century.

Bloomberg backup International markets:

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/america.html

Markets with new 52 week highs:

Morgan Stanley Multinationals

NFT MORGAN STANLEY MULTINAT INDEX

Asia at their Benchmarks South Korea below 500 from 570 down to 485, Japan at 15,550 down from 17,024, Hong Kong to 11,800

* London to 6,000 record high, Paris at 3900* high, Frankfort at 5,225 * high FTSE 100 6033.0 +35.1 CAC 3717.05 +28.37 X-DAX 5005.97 +56.06 to

---------------------------------------------------------------
MARKET PRICES AT 0953 GMT
Mark 1.8530/40 Yen 134.64/74 Sterling 1.6635/45
Gold $305.75/6.25 +5.7 (pvs PM fix) Brent $14.48 +0.31
FTSE 100 6084.3 +31.5 CAC 3979.88 +44.00 X-DAX 5228.09 +49.05
---------------------------------------------------------------

EU markets at new highs:
Bourses in Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Milan, Madrid, Dublin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Brussels and Athens all jumped to record intraday trading highs while London, Europe's biggest share market, was within a whisker of its all-time best.
BENCHMARKS: MARKET PRICES Mark 1.8290/95 Yen 127.80/85 Sterling 1.6210/24 Gold $291.40/1.90 Brent $15.4

SECOND: ( 20 % ) Currencies: (4)
-.5 FX with more stability in Asia & - +1.0 on
currencies = +1.5 ( out of FOUR 4 ) Bond and currencies prices effect the market slowly unless there is a major and sudden movement.

Dollar at or above benchmarks going DOWN:

Mark 1.8321/26 Yen 131.74/79 Sterling 1.6822/32
EURO $ JUN98 94.345 -2 EURO YEN JUN98 99.320 +.5

Yen At Benchmark of 125 or .008 at ( 133.5 or $.0075 ), DM at benchmark 1$ = 1.82 = 1 DM costs .55 cents at ( 1.854 or .54 ), ECU at benchmark of 1$ = .92 ECU cost = $1.08 at ( .94 ECU = 1$ ECU cost $1.065 ) Pound over $1.62 1$ =.617 pounds at (.59 $ 1.67 ) Swiss Frank 1.46 per 1 $ or costs .68 $ ( 1.535 .65 ) INDONESIA RUPIAH RISES 2.3% TO 8400 TO US DOLLAR up from above 15,000 Korea won at 1400 other gains against dollar in Asia =
dollar/ Asia

- 4.5 on foreign markets and FX , ( of 14 ) ( 50 % 10 points)

THIRD: Market direction, technical and leadership (6) ( 30 % ):

U.S. Indexes

+1.5 ( out of five ) on Momentum plus charts technical and
-2.5 from leading tech stocks SOX index needs to be watched..
at 294 range 305 - 290

SubTotal = -7.5

FORMULA:

**SEE CHART ( average of markets ) .05^(1.75*.0135)= - .93

FOUR Interest rates (20%) : Bond and currencies prices effect the market slowly unless there is a major and sudden movement.

- 1.0 INTEREST interest rates UP ( but below 6 % ) on REVERSE flight from quality at 57.5 30 Y TSY bond down to 102 from 105 (
WCB:^TYX) - UP from -spread of 3.0 · 56.5
TYX ·

EURO $ JUN98 94.345 5.65% up to EURO $ JUN98 94.29 = 5.71 % + .3 gives long rate of 6.1 %

LIBOR APR98 discount rate APR98 94.345 = 5.655 % = .3 = 5.96 long rate**

Total = -8.5 ( future UP ) out of 15 ( 18 to 21 points but 15 scale)

MARKET MOVING NEWS:
Main page money.htm

News and analysis GO TO Money pages first
forecast.htm, then
conditions.htm

GO TO CURRENT UPDATES

Big Money

We are communicating using IP numbers.
The machine and modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog ) I am using ( via phone line ) identifies itself with a unique number.
The web site has a unique number 207.7.23.17. Now when we get bandwidth* where ever I am - and what ever I am using - portable, telephone ( network utility device), cable, satellite, wireless, broadband, microwave, wires - we can reach out and touch the whole world of the Internet, data, interactive forms and e-commerce, services, goods and entertainment, voice and video communications, where distance doesn’t matter.

This is the supper global communications system now under construction. It replaces the telephone, the PC becomes the NC, some of TV, and does new stuff not yet invented.
The market is a billion connections, now ready to buy, and trillions in services, equipment, and air time. Universal modem ( or digital connection to replace the analog )s are able to connect using Asymmetric Digital Lines, cable, wireless, broadband and wideband, microwaves, so that there doesn’t have to be a single standard.
The box itself can be given away as part of the service. This new secular order will be online in a few years.
There will be some big winner and losers.

My current guess on winners is DT ( German Telephone ), World Com, Motorola, the satellite companies, switches and local transfer stations and their providers. A billion people with their own IP connect to each other and a network ( greater than 10 Mb per second ) which doubles every 18 months in the number of users and traffic while cost go down by 50 % ( Moore’s law). Office systems and networks will just be one link on these global networks, with data banks provided by high power servers, internal and external. When you order the CD the computer produces it for you, when you order tickets the computer designs transportation schedules to maximize load and convenience, when you order consumer items they are produced to your specifications.
The global economy become interactive - reactive - supply exactly matches demand without much inventory or need for discount sales of many items.

Who is in a position to take advantage of these new technologies ? Communications companies, global computer systems, TRW, Texas Instruments, Intel, Microsoft, IBM, AT&T, LU ( bell labs ), Netscape, Sun Microsystems, but they need to rethink the very nature of their business and the nature of business itself.

NORTHERN TELECOM LTD. of Canada and United Utilities PLC of Britain, co-developers of the technique, have signed commercial agreements with six to 10 utilities, including German giant RWE, Singapore Power and others in Scandinavia, according to people familiar with the situation.
These utilities will conduct trials in scores of homes and small businesses. If things go well, and the costs aren’t prohibitive, they could launch the service next year.
Nortel and United Utilities have also agreed to set up a joint company, Nor.Web, to commercially develop and market the new technology, people familiar with the plans said.
The companies are expected to make their announcement in London Wednesday.
Nortel and Norweb Communications, the latter a unit of United Utilities, caused a stir in October when they said they had discovered a way to transmit Internet and data services over electricity cables at 10 times the current speed.

http://investor.msn.com/home.asp?Welcome=true

SUN MICROSYSTEMS INC. (Monday's close 44) is expected Tuesday to
announce that TELEFON AB L.M. ERICSSON (Monday's close 48) will license Java for use in cellular telephones, the New York Times reported. Sun is also close to a licensing deal with consumer electronics goliath SONY CORP (Monday's close 85-3/16), an industry executive with knowledge of talks between the two companies told the Times. Sun is also close to announcing an agreement with IBM Corp. (Monday's close 101-3/8) in which the two companies will agree to cooperate on developing a Java operating system for a variety of consumer and embedded applications, the Times said. (Reuters 06:17 AM ET 03/24/98) For the full text story, see
http://www.infobeat.com/stories/cgi/story.cgi?id=2553462390+1d0

http://www.digital.com/rcfoc/

is one of the best way to keep track of the rapidly changing face of computering

chest-computergram-index archives - March 1998 (by date)

NISS Computergram

News and analysis GO TO Money pages first
forecast.htm, then
conditions.htm
GO TO CURRENT UPDATES

---------- G o to Wiredbrain's
ACTIVE-NEWS PAGE

The fedtarget for short term rates is 5.5 % All the rates under 5 years is under the target. FOMC policy involves a lot more than the discount rate.

The Wiredbrain
Theory of market motion :
conditions

There are external and internal factors.
The external factors are based on the existence of one global market, working 24 hours a day - going from New York to Asia to Europe and back. This market then influences the open because of actions already taken elsewhere.

Factor one includes
foreign markets. Factor two is made up of currencies flow into and out of the dollar. A higher dollar means more people are buying than selling which implies movement into U.S. markets.

The third and fourth factors are
INTERNAL . At any moment dozens of different factors come into play, up grades and down grades, earning, changes in leadership, news events, which are different from each other and change all the time. However, the American and global economy is driven by new technologies in communications and computers.
The model companies are Intel and Microsoft, rather than G.M. and Dupont on the older DJIA which as been below the market as measured by the SP 500.
Therefore the NDX is more representative of future growth than the Dow Industrial. Technology has been below the market -

Three months chart: Dec. Jan. Feb. For 6 months there was a nice pattern - NOW WHAT ? First INTC goes then followed by SOX, NDX then MSFT then the market - all in a nice order down to the middle of Jan. - MSFT starts up, then INTC then NDX then the market - so INTC should start down, then MSFT, then NDX then the market - over the next week or so..

Since Oct. Intel and the semi-conductors have been relatively weaker than the market as a whole until in the middle of Jan they turned stronger than market. This has pushed up the NDX as a whole. Microsoft has charged ahead of the market pulling some more technologies up. You can notice that Intel ( SOX index ) advances and drops first, then the NDX then the market. Now the market seems to be drag up by the tech stocks up. As the auto's drove the market in the 1950's and 1960's, and IBM, GE and medical services were the bell weathers in the 70's and early 80's, these new technologies now forecast the market as a whole. Since the middle of Jan. what do you see ? A shoot up in Microsoft then Intel and gain of relative strength of Technologies NDX ?

The final factor is built around Interest rates which effect the markets when they move out of range or quickly.
The market does not have very good peripheral vision and only takes account of rapid motions on the edge of its focus .
The futures CME flash reports, reflects all these factors and confirm Wiredbrain analysis.

CBS headlines Data Broadcasting Corporation.

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See
Backup at http://www.wiredbrain.net/money.htm for what we thought a few minutes ago:

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News and analysis GO TO Money pages first
forecast.htm, then
conditions.htm
GO TO CURRENT UPDATES

Most U.S. Indexes

CME

COMM RES BUR NDX (NYSE:^CRB) - Jan 30 · 234.39 Change -0.59 (-0.25%)

SOX SOX Semiconductor Index

NDX

MORGAN STANLEY HI TECH 35 ($MSH)

ALL U.S. Indexes

LINKS all the major connections

DJ COMMODITY 131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices going up in the last month from long term down - at 3 months high -

---------- G o to Wiredbrain's
ACTIVE-NEWS PAGE

^DJC

the news in one place

Resources for Economists on the Internet

ECONOMIC RESEARCH

DJX Index

Forbes
The Big Issues

The Digital Revolution: Why and Whither

Resistance: At about S&P500 at 1110and 8888 on the Dow people hit target prices on individual stocks and index futures and begin to close positions.
The futures market is different from the stock market itself. Different people with different ideas. When the market gets "too high" they sell futures ( short) with the idea of buying them back at a lower price. Sell high buy back low.
The future drops more below the fair market value. Sell programs then buy the futures and sell the stocks. Buy low futures sell stocks high. This may trigger more sell programs as people sell stocks and futures, going short and buying puts.
The drop in the futures price sets off more sell programs etc.

NEW YORK, Feb. 27 (Reuters) -
The New York Stock Exchange said program trading averaged 101.8 million shares a day, or 17 percent of its average daily volume of 598.9 million shares for the week of February 17-20.
Of the 101.8 million shares daily, buy programs accounted for about 52.2 million shares of the daily average volume, while sell
programs accounted for about 49.6 million.
There are just a few minutes when the Tail
wags the dog :

ALL INDEX

DJ COMMODITY NDX 131.38 UP to 144 from 167.2 high Commodity prices going up in the last three weeks from long term down - at 3 months high -

^DJC

DO IT YOURSELF FORM

Too late for the long side: but wait for high -
GO TO MONEY.HTM

close out LONG UP positions on the rally take
short side: ... about 1050 on the S&P500 Target at 955 -
The big MO
charts

NetProphet from NEURAL he DJIA should start tipping down as has the Tech Index, the Nasdaq.

When the DJIA reaches above the NDX it turns down!

When at top ( or bottom ) and Wiredbrain Index instant Summary is greater than -6.5 go short (puts) when it is over + 6.5 then close shorts go long ( calls ) - in the mean while keep track of these options to see how you have done.

Bloomberg backup International markets:

Yahoo International not working this morning go to
my.yahoo.com sign in as "wiredbrain" password "synergy" and open major markets - see the individual stock picks for the next century.

BRIDGE International markets

Action in the Futures Market
News Overview:

FORMULA: Where Y is the current rate of change ( 50 day moving average ) +- current reading and X is the Wiredbrain score

If foreign markets or exchange or interest rates are (UP/DOWN) 1 % then the Wiredbrain Index WI is +-
for example if the benchmark for the long bond is 5.83 % using the 50
day moving average and the current interest rate is 5.93 this is up 1.0 ( -.01) = WI= .05^(1.75.01)= - .95
If Foreign Markets are up 1.5 % then WI = +4
Actual numbers depend on actual relationships with time delays

When there is agreement - everything moving in the same direction the Instant Index goes up or down - gets bigger or smaller.
The market is a human activity and as all human activities is a mixture of objective reason and magic.
The world as we know is a perception, objective reality is only a special case observed by special methods. Events maybe perceived as important or not depending on the message and the media and preset patterns of expectations and prejudices.
These all too human factors, reflective factors, add temporary uncertainty and volatility.

The S&P 500 and Wiredbrain's Index as a SHORT TERM TIMER:

WIREDBRAIN'S PORTFOLIO
Wiredbrain at 191 now186

Market Letter 03/30/98

The initial target for the DJIA -8127- was achieved on 02/03/98.
The models are projected to remain bullish until 04/10.
The next target
for the DJIA -8529- was hit on 02/27/98. Potential 9000-9200 by 4/10. Check out "ON THE EDGE" - A monthly review of the markets ____
CURRENT PRIOR MARKET TIMING MODELS READING WEEK CHG CONNOTATION
CYCLICAL TREND INDEX (CTI): 5 5 0 BULLISH
MOMENTUM INDEX: 1 2 +1 NEUTRAL
SENTIMENT INDEX: 1 2 +1 NEUTRAL
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGES (DJIA) CLOSE:................ 8796.08
DJIA POINT CHANGE FROM PRIOR WEEK:......................... +110.35
DJIA PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM PRIOR WEEK:.................... +1.24%
MARKET POSTURE THIS WEEK:..................................MILD BULLISH
MARKET POSTURE PRIOR WEEK:.................................MILD BULLISH
DJIA TARGET:............................................... 8529
TIME FRAME tO ACHIEVE TARGET:.............................. 10-Apr-98
DATE CURRENT MARKET POSTURE FORMULATED:.................... 23-Jan-98
DJIA CLOSE ON DATE CURRENT MARKET POSTURE FORMULATED:...... 7700.74 CYCLICAL TREND INDEX (CTI).......... 5 CONNOTATION
03-Apr-98 (Projected) 5 BULLISH
10-Apr-98 (Projected) +1 BEARISH
17-Apr-98 (Projected) +1 BEARISH
24-Apr-98 (Projected) -2 BEARISH
01-May-98 (Projected) -2 BEARISH MOMENTUM INDEX...................... 1 % CHG CONNOTATION 1) DJ Transportation Average 3512.33 -2.1% BEARISH 2) S&P 500 Index 1095.44 -0.3% BULLISH 3) NYSE Composite Index 569.80 -0.5% BULLISH 4) Advance-Decline Line -221 BULLISH 5) 10 Day MA Advance-Decline Line 1.11 +10.0% BULLISH 6) AMEX Index 738.31 1.4% BEARISH 7) NASDAQ Composite Index 1823.58 1.9% BULLISH 8) DJ Utilities Index 282.64 +1.1% BEARISH 9) TRIN+10 Day Average 0.86 0.6% NEUTRAL
10) NYSE New Highs-New Lows 731-71 NEUTRAL
11) Zweig Breadth Indicator 0.57 NEUTRAL
12) McClellan Oscillator -37 NEUTRAL
13) McClellan Summation Index 2111 BULLISH
14) Unchanged Issue Index 0.16 BEARISH SENTIMENT INDEX..................... 1 % CHG CONNOTATION 1) Odd Lot Short Ratio-5 Day Ave 5.15 -0.3% BEARISH 2) NYSE Short Interest Ratio 6.28 0.0% BULLISH 3) Public-Specialist Short Ratio 1.33 0.0% BULLISH 4) Put/Call Ratio+10 Day Ave(INDEX) 114 +17.2% NEUTRAL 5) Dividend-Yield Spread 5.06 0.0% BULLISH 6) Mutual Fund Liquid Asset Ratio 5.00 0.0% BEARISH 7) Bullish Investment Advisors 48.0 0.0% NEUTRAL 8) Bearish Investment Advisors 27.6 0.0% NEUTRAL 9) Bearish + Corrections Total 52.0 0.0% NEUTRAL

Fill out the following form:

Do it yourself contest:

Mail in your results before 9:30 Am and win free options profits on $ 1000.00 trades:

Points for foreign markets (
bookmark ) assign from - 9 to + 9

Points for foreign exchange (
bookmark ) assign from -3 to + 3

sub-total for Markets and FX - 11 to + 11

Points for Technology as leading indicators (
bookmark ) assign - 3 to + 3

Points for market momentum (
bookmark ) and news (
bookmark ) look for FOCUS - 3 to + 3

sub-total for Market direction and technology as leading indicator - 6 to + 6

SUB-Total for above _ ( Markets and FX ) + ( Direction ) - 5 to + 5

Interest rates (
bookmark ) - 3 to + 3

TOTAL _

Future market S&P500 _ (
bookmark ) less premium - 7.5 = _ from cash price (
bookmark ) = from cash

Grand total __ Index of today's market

Forecast OPEN _ RANGE ( high ) _ ( low ) CLOSE _
S&P 500 Name

Do it yourself contest:

Mail in your results before 9:30 Am and win free options profits from $ 1,000 trade :

Fill out the following form:
( SELF.HTM free standing form )

Mail in your results before 9:30 Am and win free options profits on $ 1000.00 trades:

Then cut and paste to

DJX Index

Do it yourself contest:

Then cut and paste to
Do it yourself contest:

Mail in your results before 9:30 Am and win free options profits

RETURN TO FLASH

INDEX PAGE made by AltaVista, enter "wiredbrain" to update*

CBS headlines

The Dow was seen starting

DEPENDS on Technology turning down more than the market

LONGER TERM INDEX

The January effect could help us out temporarily -- it looks like a lot of people sold for tax reasons and are hoping to pick up those stocks again in the next year,"

STEP 12: See other
OPTIONS Positions: -
Today's OEX Options Trades

( Technology
SOX turns down )

Actual trades on
money.htm

Wiredbrain Bookmarks

LINKS all the major connections

STEP ONE: check CME

STEP TWO: Yahoo: check international markets and
CBS: Sectors giving leadership

Market Data

Step three :
interest rates

STEP Four: Bloomberg's currencies and

FIVE:
The Dow was seen starting on
MONEYNET

SIX: cnnfn BRIDGE NEWS

STEP SEVEN : CBS headlines DBC
The News

EIGHT: Cnnfn
MarketWatch

STEP 9: Yahoo
WORLD Markets Reuters

STEP 10: After Market
bond rates Watch it as the Market
OPENS !

STEP 11: GENERAL
MARKET CONDITIONS:

CBS Marketwatch

If you believe 1998 will be a year of easing profits and tame inflation,
bonds are the place to be.

STEP 12 :
OPEN Positions: -

Today's Options Trades

Actual trades on money.htm

So what is junk news ? People make real money selling junk food, bonds, stocks, movies, music, books, art, politics, T.V. is mostly junk but ...

Space-time shift detected in orbit Changes in satellite paths seem to confirm Einstein’s theories

Social meaning of space time - relativity:
The bottom line is that there are twists in space and time in the vicinity of spinning bodies such as planets and stars.

We clearly are influenced by and influence those around us. This reflective interaction creates a dynamic social reality.
The order of reality is changed by how it is perceived and transmitted. In out special space time reality is relative to constant reinterpretations which then reflect back into the pool of common beliefs.
The twists and turns become a complex dance where forces are exchanged, redefined and focused.
The Chant des Derviches ( Sufi Music ) are dramatic presentations of these forces

MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.com/news/153849.asp#BODY

March 26 — Scientists say they have again found evidence that a spinning body changes the surrounding geometry of the universe, confirming Einstein’s general theory of relativity. But this time, the evidence doesn’t come from a distant black hole — instead, it comes from satellites orbiting Earth itself.

THE NEW FINDINGS, published in Friday’s issue of the journal Science, are based on precise observations using two laser-ranging satellites known as LAGEOS and LAGEOS II.
The satellites are covered with target reflectors that bounce laser beams back to observers on Earth. By timing how long it takes for the laser light to make the round trip, scientists can measure orbital distances down to a matter of millimeters.
An Italian-American-Spanish team of astronomers took advantage of the LAGEOS system as well as new models of Earth’s gravitational field to test the theory of relativity. One of the implications of relativity is that the rotation of a spinning body "drags" the geometry of space and time in its vicinity.
The orbit of an object going around that spinning body would shift slightly with each revolution, and a small gyroscope on the orbiting satellite would appear to wobble.

The bottom line is that there are twists in space and time in the vicinity of spinning bodies such as planets and stars.
This phenomenon, known as "frame-dragging" or the "Lense-Thirring effect," was confirmed last November by X-ray observations of five black holes and several spinning neutron stars.
The effects reported in Science are far closer to home, but far more subtle.

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