Surplus Product:
The fault in free market
capitalism is the historic issue of over production. The motivation of
capitalism is to gain a higher return on investment (ROI) than the going rate
of return. A functional capital market
will increase investment in sectors that are “hot” until it is over
done. Since there is a delay between decisions and the ROI people invest today
on the expectation of returns tomorrow. Using historical data is always
misleading and can not be true a discount of current value vs. future ROI.
There will be more houses, cars, structured investment instruments, etc. than
the market can absorb as supply out run effective demand.
The modern discount system escalate the boom
and bust effects. A million dollars in mortgages is turned into certificates
that generate additional money to fund more home loans that then are used as
assets to borrow more money until one dollar becomes ten. When the million
dollars in bonds have to be repaid or lose their market value it takes ten
million dollars out of the pool so the virtuous cycle becomes a malevolence
cycle. It is similar danger as buying on
margin.
The monetary policy is to
drop interest rates to make ROI easier.
The government pump primes by borrowing money and spending it. The scale
has to be right – too little too late will not work. As in taking
antibiotics you need to get a big dose and finish the course of treatment or
the disease will return in a more virulent form. The political system has to be able to act and
decisively or it won’t work. Peter Druker’s theory was that war was
the only way democracies could dispose of the surplus property by shooting it
at foreign enemies. Workers are paid to produce the good of war but nothing
enters the civil supply chain. Democracies
have a hard time collecting taxes and run surpluses when the economy over heats
because human desires are endless and politicians get elected by buying voters
with public programs.
A real reserve fund is the
solution – save during the seven good years so you have resources in the
rainy day.
The central issue from the
17th century forward, is the shift from
the rule of established authorities by a established land owning ruling class
of king and church to a capitalist and republican form of government. The
empirical issue is the nature of mass publics. In “Reflections on the revolution in
The issue over the last few
centuries and today and in the campaign for democracy today is the problem of
the unlikely trust placed in ordinary people – are they a mass of
unconscious desires and hidden motivation aroused by the market managers,
elitists and the media or are they sovereign individuals endowed by their
creator with reason and citizen with rights.
Is it Rush or
This years selection of
President have this in the background – can people, the great unwashed,
the masses take charge of their own affairs – can there be a government
of the people, for the people and by the people or is this a fairy tale –
and grand illusion?
According to General
Semantics, cognitive sciences, it’s the frame STUPID! The frame is the network of associations that
spring from the sub-conscientious with the brand.
Obama has a brand of hope and
change – a people lost in the wilderness about to cross to the holy
land. The collection of tribes of all the people lost in the dessert
looking across to the promised land of milk and honey. The leader is a guide
and prophet, a coach getting the team into the supper bowl.
The Republican image of the
strict father offer security and freedom from reason. The people is to follow
and believe and not question authority. Ditto Heads…
Democracy in
There are some popular myths
about the nature of the American civilization.
The nation was a child of enlighten not a Christian revival. The Deists
and Freemasons who organized the “committees of public safety” and
created the propaganda that let to the “rebellion of the American
Colonies” and was all about CHANGE. The established order of CHURCH,
KING, and State was gothic v. the modern world which was rational, logical as
opposed to faith based doctrine based on tradition and authority. The idea that
people could manage their own affairs depended on people being sensible, not
driven by superstitions, and passions. The people must have a higher sense of
the common good and see beyond just personal, regional, racial, ethic, class or
religious prejudices. The “people” were property owners and
educated. The masses were not to be trusted.
Without the balance of power, public education, and a stable middle
class Imperial tyranny would be replaced by the rule of the mob.
If Mr. Edwards wants to
change “the system” he will have to convince the states to call a
constitutional convention to redesign the balance of power. The system we have has been successful
designed to prevent Democracy because popular rule would endanger civil
liberties and state sovereignty
– Democracy only requires majority rule within a parliamentary
system. The American design was to
prevent the state from doing much, for better or worse. The balance of power design was there because
the founding fathers did not trust the people or majorities that would abolish
slavery, over tax or regulate, tax trade to the disadvantage of one region or
industry or another. Our limited democracy
is another result of our original sin of slavery.
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Social ergonomics
Individual development,
organizational change, and In the computer industry, power comes not from the
barrel of a gun but from the interface of a protocol.
The first true electric book
The History of the Future:
Friday, December 04, 1998
AE21, Education for century twenty-one:
The school of AE21 will have the
following characteristics: Teaching.htm
Firm foundation the Basics - high standard
test scores 80% or better;
Higher level thinking and problem solving;
Technology and communications saturation - lots of links and free enterpise
Inventive, creative - flexible - (
See John Dewey )
Small - stable - smart - un-graded - individualized on-task focus of the
one-room school house Mostly private, religious, charter, voucher schools and a
few public "site based management" institutions (
See Fiske and Harlem schools in a school )
Human resources are the critical
prerequisite to the process of building wealth, prosperity and the civil open
society.
The reasons for the "Wealth of
Nations" or the relative poverty of "backwardness" has to do
with the character and skills of the population. Curiosity and a positive image
of the future are the reasons for the industrial revolution, first, second and
third.
The religious and political changes in England and the Low
Countries in the 15th century made for the possibilities of the
modern world.
What is less well understood are the
"qualitative" nature of human abilities.
There are the following stages, each not
replaced by the next advance but over-layered with each becoming dominate in
turn but not replacing previous models. As canals and bicycles still play an
important role in European transportation, augmented by trains, cars and planes.
The first level is the "skilled
crafts" - a long apprenticeship with hands on methods produces a high
level of abilities - Cathedrals with stained glass, Columbus
In the 19th century, higher education in
the Agricultural and Mechanical arts began to pay off.
The newly unified Germany began to surpass
England because of excellence in technical training while Great Britain stayed
with the Classical educational process - founded on Latin and Greek rather than
Science and Math.
The United States
The second industrial revolution of
electrical, biological and chemical engineering is based on formal training in
math and science.
The MBA in business maybe useful in
production of rational "corporate people" and culture.
The majority of mangers still come from the
technical, legal and accounting professions.
The third level of human skill for Century twenty-one
has to do with creativity in a global communications technology. We still need
skilled craft people, we need to improve basic literacy and grammar,
enterprise, with science and technology in complex engineering tasks.
Computer people carry the unhappy title of
"software engineer" because they are trying to fit into an older
model of categories in human resource management. Is someone who creates games
and innovative web practices doing arts or sciences or applied technology ? If
you visit a trade show in the computer - consumer electronics - communications
business you find new younger people doing new things with a
"strange" mixture of backgrounds, including a lot of "rock and
roll music" nationalities - and very unclear standards of higher education
and training. Smart is as smart does - and "stupid is as stupid
does".
Real Reform.com
American Association for
Constitutional Reform
The issue of structural reform does not
appear as an issue any where I can find - even in third parties. As I see the
issue is the 18th century electoral structure can not cope with a system of
mass marketing and the money required to win in a big country.
The reform that is needed is to change the
structure of the elections - a change from independent single member districts
( The Senate can not be changed in the current constitution ) to a system with
clear party responsibility.
The parties need to be clearly a national
franchise - with duties and responsibilities OVER their candidates and office
holders. Being a Republican or Democrat has to mean something. If you run on a
ticket there should be some implied contract. Many candidates do not even
mention their party at all.
The national parties are now a committee of
the states - equal representative by states so 15 % of the population has a
majority.
There are many alternatives to achieve a
responsible party system - some commitment to the platform and some disciple by
members elected as members of a party.
Then there could be some control over money
and have shorter and cleaner campaigns as in the rest of the civilized world.
The congress has become 535 independent
small business people without much discipline or policy. All this talk about
issues is hollow because the talk does not relate to what happens. In England
The single ballot ( President and congress
on the same check mark ) so there is some connection between executive and
congressional authority is one suggestion. An amendment to make clear the
federal power to regulate federal elections or just a statue taking control
over federal office holders.
The only way to get to structural reform is
via a convention called by the states since congress will not reform itself.
Real Reform: Restore confidence and pride
in the Institutions of democracy:
Article II - electors and electoral college
- is a time bomb - and needs to be replaced by new simple language - and a
national orderly rational process of federal elections. Federal elections need
to be federal - not a scramble of state rules, antique dysfunctional
regulations and court decisions along with the changing results of infighting
within fractional political parties.
The right to control federal elections by
federal law should not be in doubt - this does now effect the bill of rights -
but only the structure of he process of running elections.
In the electronic age we don’t need a horse
and buggy system - it can be much fairer, faster, representative, and honest.
Elections are the core of democracy - they can never be perfect but a
dysfunctional system undermines the foundations of freedom and representative
government.
Federal Elections in the Constitution:
In order to assure democracy and the faith
of the people in their elected representatives; federal elections shall be
conducted in a brief, honest, open, and equal manner that assure impartiality
to both incumbents and their opposition and limit the undue influence of money.
Congress shall prescribe by law for the election of all federal officials by
the majority votes of federally qualified citizens of the congressional
districts for the House of Representatives, the separate states for the Senate,
and of the Citizens of United States for President and Vice-president.
The certification of results, the
qualifications of voters and candidates, the times and dates of primaries and
elections, the certification of recognized Political parties and their
candidates and the conduct of campaigns financed by publicly regulated expenditures
shall be prescribed by law to assure
freedom of political speech, competition,
and the free expression of the will of the people in the selection of their
Government. Where no candidate has a majority a run off shall be quickly
conducted.
Upon enactment, This amendment become the
supreme law of the land, not withstanding any prior constitutional or other
legal decisions and past circumstances.
( replaces: Article I section 2 on the
House section 3 and Amendment 17 on the Senate, Article II and Amendment 12 on
the President and Vice-president )
Federal Laws and Constitutional Amendments:
Congress shall prescribe the terms and
conditions for citizen initiative, or congressional referendum to be placed on
the ballots of federal elections, as proposals for amendments under Article V,
sent to the states, or laws to be enacted or as advisory to the states, the
people and to congress.
This leaves to congress to control federal
elections. I would like an election on the second Tuesday in November with a run
off if necessary in the middle of November - with campaigns to start on labor
day including the nomination process that could be done in 4 to 6 weeks.
The primaries could be done nationally in
early September with a run off in the last week of September with conventions (
not really necessary ) during October (Enough is enough ) Federal campaigns
would be publicly financed and limited in their expenditures.
Japan
Bank reform requires a fundamental shift
from combines of firms centered around banks and holding each others shares to
corporate capitalism within trading groups and well as between trading groups.
This requires a change from the way Japan Inc. has worked since the beginnings
of modernization.
The government is a committee of high level
administrators that work within the system and have very little control of the
system.
There is no way to pay the costs of social
security and medicare for those currently in the labor force.
The shift from income and payroll taxes to
VAT ( consumption taxes ) will help, the nationalization of education and
medicine could help. What would make a real difference is politically unlikely,
what is politically possible is unlikely to do any good.
The American political system can not take
fundamental decisions in advance of crisis and slow to respond to important
changes in the society.
Alan Greenspan, in his recent testimony to
congress, repeated a lesson in basic economics.
The economy welfare of any nation depends
on three factors:
The skill and educational character of the
labor force,
The capital stock the company and the
society provides to make work productive
The ratio of fixed to variable costs of
social overhead.
In a fully developed industrial society the
costs of social security and health care are transferred to workers and the
overhead of everything produced. As the population shifts from a pyramid to a
column the social overhead costs become very high.
The relative costs of work shifts to less
developed, labor rich areas.
The long term investment in human and
physical capital is the reason for increases in productivity - better trained
people working smarter with better tools are the reasons for wealth or poverty.
At the same time the cost of payroll taxes alone becomes higher than world wide
base hourly wages.
How much each person, each hour’s labor,
how much each unit of input produces in goods and services is directly related
to the income from work and the return on investment.
The machine that digs increases digging
productivity and the wages of people with hand shovels or power equipment,
airplanes increase travel productivity and the wages of wagon drivers or
pilots, the word processor increases writing productivity, the Internet
increases communication productivity.
The cost per unit of computer power
declines by half every 18 months ( Moore’s Law ) increases the whole of the economy’s
efficiency.
The current period of growth with low
inflation, where the labor force has growth by 300,000 a month, 4 million a
year ( 3 % ) has been possible because of better trained women’s wide
participation, more women are now in college than males and minority workers
acting as a reserve along with moving jobs to lower costs areas of production
and immigration.
The larger labor force has new and improved
tools provided by the "information" revolution. Productivity in some
areas of high technology have been very impressive. As we become more global,
the labor force becomes global. Low skilled occupations move to low wage areas
- China
Networks of product design, original
equipment manufacture (OEM), distribution and marketing become more complex and
integrated.
Three central concepts:
Punctuated Equilibrium In Action!
Complex system are slow when adapting to
changing environments and subject to periods of rapid degeneration and
extinction.
Inter-connections:
Direct connection on complex networks.
The number of connections increases
exponentially on a global basis. Almost everything connects to almost
everything else. What you see is that the most outstanding feature of life's
history is a constant domination by bacteria. Very complex systems decrease
rapidly in times of environmental instability and sudden change.
disintermedation
disintermedation
disintermedation Last updated on March 20,
1999
Details and special cases:
The Internet Revolution:
disintermedation
The future of established institution to
control economic, social and political events is very limited.
The Political process everywhere, national
and international, can not keep pace with the rapid, changing, complex,
counter-intuitive, non-ideological, global policy problems and issues. Among
these issues are global warming, international finance, trade, ethnic and class
conflict, population, education, health, welfare, pollution, warfare etc..
http://www.altavista.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&kl=XX&q=disintermedation+middleman+intermediaries+intermediary&search=Search
The demographics of the industrial world
project a rapid decline in the proportion of people in the labor force.
The large differences between rich and poor
countries is becoming complex with higher income pockets dispersed around the
world. We need to focus on global growth rates and interdependencies and how
they play out in any market for labor or products and services. A tight labor
market for skilled computer labor creates service centers in Barbados , India ,
Ireland
While the average age in the developing
world is in the teens, the average ratio of workers to retired persons is moving
in the industrial world from 1:15 to 1:3 or even less as the average age goes
over 35.
The average years of retirement have grown
from less than 5 to over 15. Required education and training keeps more young
people from the labor market - highly skilled occupations such as medicine
takes 12 years of higher education ( including specialties and internships ) so
the productive years start in their 30s. If they retire after 30 years - at 62
( 70 % of Social Security retirement is at 62 ) they have an average 2/3 of
their adult life or 20 years as consumers without production being supported by
earning from saving and/or income transfers.
There is no way to provide the wealth that
can support large numbers of retired from a fewer number of workers even with
better public policies, even with an historic increase in long term
productivity. Individuals and firms can do well with increased saving and
investment in even smarter systems and tools provided to a even more highly
skilled work force.
A highly developed economy such as Japan
They are better educated, are very
competitive and clever, they are cooperative and maintain a reasonable level of
fairness and stability, but face the same basic structural problems that faces
all developed nations.
Their population is aging, productivity
gains are harder and harder to come by because all the clear options have
already been used.
There is a increasing high wall on the left
of any distribution of complex systems.
What has worked no longer is working
very well, what was successful is now fading and dying.
The new success is in the process of being
born and growing up and also doesn't work very well yet.
For examples of complex systems hitting
a wall:
The U.S.
Japan Inc. of powers not divided enough,
old and new international combines,
the USS-was, from too much power to too little authority.
The power elite everywhere are in denial,
they will soon become angry, in the slow realization of the death and dying of
the "old ways".
The English crown discovered, tradition
doesn't cut it with new ways requiring new kinds of people and systems.
The nature of change only becomes real when
the effects are painfully apparent. It's extraordinary rare for people or their
institutions, to change behavior because it's necessary, rational or prudent.
Behavior changes, if at all, only under coercion and crisis.
The American political system, the Japanese
economy - corporate administrative state - called Japan Inc., the Soviet Union
- USS-was, IBM, GM, et al are all examples of where things have to get worse
before they get better.
1997 -
There is a financial crisis is South East
Asia - a currency and market crisis caused by "bubble economies" and
patterns of insider trading and special privileges called crony capitalism.
1998 - Japan ,
which is 2/3 of Asia's economy and China
which is more than 1/2 of the remaining third, suffer from basic structural
problems augment by the continuing crisis in Asia and Russia
The basic facts of modern Japanese life
would have to be different, and real market capitalism given more space to
operate.
1998 second half -
The world markets are flooded with saving
and low cost goods from Asia , speculation fed
upon speculation, pushing the world into a global bubble, boom and bust cycles.
The real economy declines, commodity prices
decline, while asset prices increase.
The U.S.
The people who find they can not use the
democratic process to gain satisfaction turn toward extreme emotional appeals
or drop out.
1999 -
The beginning of a Global Depression,
counter-revolutionize Eastern Europe, extremism and nationalism in Japan, a closing
of the European Union into a defensive block, chaos in the Balkans, spreading
unrest in Mexico and Latin America.
The direction of these forces is the
fractured global society, made up of patterns of smaller, more temporary
organizations.
The percentage of the economy controlled by
the top 500 firms continues to decline, the average time firms stay on the
list, the number of new entries increases and on a global basis most are
non-American and trans-national. Little countries such as Finland , Israel ,
Singapore , Hong Kong , Netherlands
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The economics profession, the
federal reserve, national planners, and the stock market is just learning to
deal with this change in economic behavior. Microsoft Internet Explorer 4.0 and
Netscape are working on a Java Machine that will be the core of
most new computer applications. Suites of application either on the
"video" hard drive or on a systems server will run on these virtual
machines, so will autos, and all kinds of "real" machines. This
replaces Windows, Dos or other OS and MS knows it.
The communications industry, in fact
all of Information Technology (IT) will provide applications, voice, video,
data and word processing on the internet, intranets, extranets, are all built
on this CORE system which provides on demand applications. This is the BIG
picture. This is the central theme. This is the main thing. Do you "get
it" ?
Review the technology with the central
role of core systems clearly in mind.
Themes:
EVOLUTION:
Human Evolution
was for 300,000 years in troops - where everyone knew each other, their names
and the relationships. Any animal behavior in their packs, troops, herds and
their breading behavior is almost impossible to change.
The few species
that became domestic have patterns of status and "pecking orders"
that allow humans to "implant" themselves as dominant and in control.
Most species will not become domestic after thousands of years of efforts.
Zebras do not act like horses, Camels remain nasty, most animals are subject to
panic and some will not bread in zoos. Humans have evolved with the same kind
of behavioral "groves". Social conditions that fit the groves of human psychology and social-biological habits
(Edward O. Wilson (1975). Sociobiology: the new synthesis.)work better that
conditions that don't. "Human" urban conditions push humans beyond
the breaking point. Stable organizations must use "group dynamics" as forms of
extended families and clans, troops and tribes to form nations.
The functions of
any society, group, class, school, business are:
1.) Effective
conflict resolution PATHOS ( feeling ) good rather than
nasty
2.) rational effective decision making LOGOS - if people feel OK
They can behave
more reasonably
3.) harmonious economic redistribution ( synergy ) ETHOS
- shared values and goods - not socialism but rational
welfare policy - makes one and two possible - Capitalism as Greed is
dysfunction - but so is free for nothing socialism
3.) harmonious economic redistribution ( synergy ) ETHOS - shared values and goods - not socialism but rational welfare policy - makes one and two possible - Capitalism as Greed is dysfunction - but so is free for nothing socialism
4.) better technology ( the result of one, two and
three ) plus
5.) police and/or military power ( law and order )
6.) large and
productive territories by way of the the growth of US as more and more others
are included as US and less defense from them as less and less outsiders are
THEM.
Good Religion and
Politics should allows for more inclusion less exclusion. All religion is not
good, all values are not right or useful, all politics is not bad, all
education is not useful, all business is not greedy, all women, blacks, Jews,
et al is not anything. Prejudice is not a rational guide to social or personal
wisdom.
The inclusion of
more and more people and their differences allows for innovations, freedom of
expression, democracy, freedom and
7.) integration of smaller groups into larger wholes -
Donald Tapscott, author of the books
Paradigm Shift,
7.) integration of smaller groups into larger wholes -
Donald Tapscott, author of the books Paradigm Shift,
The Digital Economy and the fourthcoming Growing Up Digital, gives the
introduction.
The Politically
correct visions of left and right often miss the fundamentals of social history
and science.
The right forgets
the critical role of the "whole systems" and the left
forgets the requirements for standards and clear returns on investments, where
cost and benefits depend on individual achievement motivation to go faster,
further and higher. Such motivation is best done in "collectives"
families, groups, packs, tribes, schools, factories, political parties,
churches, and other human life forms.
Backwards:
From argument
to intrigue :
It happens all the time - in Universities, in schools, in the U.S. Congress, in
families and churches; and a lot of companies. Honest discussion, freedom of
expression, breaks down and people turn to plots and personal agendas. Maybe
this is the best clue to future success or failure. I would invest in firms, or
societies where there is open discussion of the issues.
It happens all the time - in Universities, in schools, in the U.S. Congress, in families and churches; and a lot of companies. Honest discussion, freedom of expression, breaks down and people turn to plots and personal agendas. Maybe this is the best clue to future success or failure. I would invest in firms, or societies where there is open discussion of the issues.
What happened
to Apple was not mainly problems with markets and technology but cultural.
There is no magic
from the great CEO from above - some great idea or certain magic leader .. but
a social system. Apple was a great place that was (almost) destroyed by people
who didn't understand or care about relationships.
The Sense and
reality of Control:
Many, if not
most people, believe they can not control who they
are - they believe they are what they are and can't change their basic character
or personality.
We can control the inside more than we can control the outside; so our (
Western ) belief system is in constant conflict with external reality. In the
grand scheme of things, we mainly really only control our beliefs about reality
and our attitudes about what we can do about our future.
The art of
"success" is the faith in the future, and our attitude:
Going with the
flow...not in a passive way but proactive get us down stream. It is going along with the reality of ourselves and the world around
us in order to get along with ourselves and the world around us. It
releases energy if we are in the main stream rather that fighting the flow of
energy in self conflict. Fighting with reality because the world is NOT what we
think it is, is a childish waste of time and kind of crazy in grown-ups.
Many people,
if not most people, believe they can and are responsible to control the world
around them.
They know a lot of
things are "out of control" but they maintain a belief in control.
This is what it is "a belief". It causes a lot of frustration and
tension.
The future does
not exist. We can control our beliefs about who we are and where we fit in. We
are 100 "selves" parent, worker, economic, political, romantic,
soldier, sailor, beggar, thief, saint and sinner, and 88 more including a god.
We can select from these selves those that will get us what we want and need.
We can also select our wants and needs to fit what we can get.
The new technology
is creating a "new world order".. like it or not.
The controlling
Paradigm:
GEORGE SOROS:
and common misconceptions: the division between
conventional wisdom and reality.
"In any
case, there is something wrong with making the survival of the fittest the
guiding principle of a civilized society. This social Darwinism is based on an
outmoded theory of evolution just as the equilibrium theory in economics is
based on Newtonian physics.
The principle
which guides the evolution of the species is mutation, and mutation works in a
much more sophisticated way.
The species and
their environment are interactive, and one species serves as part of the
environment for the other species.
There is a two-way
feedback mechanism, similar to reflexivity in history, only in history the
mechanism is driven not by mutation but by misconceptions. "
The controlling
Paradigm:
George Soros
has make billions when the common knowledge, conventional wisdom is out of sink
with reality. His central point is that "objective reality" is
separate from the ideas that describe or explain what is being observed.
Whatever our ideas about "science" the physical reality doesn't
change. Our "uncertainty" or viewpoint on physical quantum doesn't
change the phenomena itself.
On the other
hand, public and expert perceptions of human activities changes
the nature of the activities themselves. Our beliefs change our behavior and
common social habits and ideas change who we are and what we do. This is a
reflective feedback loop between perceptions and reality. Political theory,
religious faiths, economic assumptions, mass media chatter, advertising, hype,
hope, needs, wants, passions or truths and lies all make social reality
"unknowable" and social action can not be based on just objective
reality and the facts.
Now the social
reality of the human population on planet earth is going through a basic
mutation, a major change in form, new forms of business evolution; where common
perceptions and conventional wisdom is often disconnected from the situation on
the ground.
The mass emotion
on the death of Princess Diana, is unexplainable, so are stock markets, the
impacts of technology, political reform, capitalism in China, and the major
events of our lives.
There can be
balanced judgments and clever analysis but nothing close to certain knowledge.
The Last Norman
Conquest:
In the visage of Diana, Princess of Wales, you can see the remains of Spencer,
a Norman knight. Spencer as much of the British nobility earned their lands and
titles in the Norman Conquest of 10 66.
The ruling class
in Great Britain has been for a 1000 years the remains of an Army of
Occupation.
The
"people" spoke old German, the upper class spoke French and they
still speak different languages, in different accents.
The landed
aristocracy lived in the manor, the landless peasants in the villages.
They still live in
different places, go to different schools, vote for different parties, read
different newspapers, and think about Diana, the Royally and power in very
different ways.
England has never had a social revolution.
The weight of
social class has held back "the Modern world" as primitive religion
has done in other parts of the world, including the Bible Belt in America.
Maybe its time to change. Modern social class is built on technology and the
income that comes from *innovation, not ownership of land and titles.
Diana is a
modern person.
The creation of
mass media. A character in a soap opera.
The
"people" identified with the struggle of the new with the old, the
flow of modern communications vs. Traditions built in grand isolation.
The castle wall
have fallen. Social space has collapsed.
The mass cultural
mythologies and dreams overwhelm the myths of royal past.
The context is
foggy passions the reality is power of social control.
The
"establishment" can not control the media, they have lost touch with
the passions of the people.
The king is dead,
long live the king !
Great
opportunities for a few Million good people
Microsoft
scours world for employees.
US software
giant Microsoft has announced plans to increase its US workforce by 19 per cent
over the next 12 months, maintaining the west coast of America as 'the centre
of the universe for the software business'.
The company plans
to recruit 3,600 people, many of whom will come from outside the US due to a
shortage of good software developers in the States.
The Independent,
UK. 18/07/97
There is a current
shortfall of 250,000 IT positions in the US costing billions of dollars
IT For example:
The demand for skilled foreign IT people : Salary
increase 17 % per year,
.
The Information
Technology Association of America, which represents hundreds of companies from
Intel and Microsoft to consultants and recruiters, estimates there are already
190,000 high tech positions standing vacant in American IT and non-IT
companies. "This can be considered a conservative estimate of the gap
between companies&rsquo growth needs and the current availability of IT
workers," says the ITAA study, "Help Wanted:
The IT Workforce
A powerful coalition of American IT companies say these highly educated
immigrants are a critical part of solving a severe personnel shortage that is a
drag on the U.S. industry.
They warn that
they may be forced to take their production outside the country if they
can&rsquot hire more people from abroad.
IEEE-USA Legal Immigration Policy Issue ... URL: http://www.ieee.org/usab/DOCUMENTS/FORUM/ISSUES/immigration.html
Summary: In 1990, partly in response to claims that the
nation faced serious shortages of engineers and scientists, Congress authorized
substantial increases in employment-based immigration to the United States.
Engineering unemployment increased from 2.1% in 1990 to an all time high of
4.1% in 1993 when 73,000 engineers were out of work. More Like This: Click here
to perform a search for documents like this one.
( stories from Excite )
MS great idea was
not technological but social.
They collected
people and created synergy. What Microsoft has is not only a great leadership
but 1000's of motivated and talented creators.
They hired
"people" and then found how they fit in - they didn't create
positions and try to fit people into jobs.
It's the culture stupid.
The shift is from material resources to human talents.
Going with the
flow of the changes over the next 15 years:
The Western (
white ) Industrial world is likely to decline in relative terms from two thirds
of Global Product (WGP) to 45 %. China will move from underdeveloped to
developing, from less than a $1,000 PCP ( per capita product ) to over $5,000 (
in current dollars ).
The developing
world will grow from one third of the Global economy to about half. Social,
political power follows economic so the Global Center of Cultural Gravity
shifts from the Middle East and Asia in the 15th century to Europe to America
in the 20th century and from America back to Asia in the 21st century.
The second change
is why the first is happening - the third wave is technology, first was
Agriculture from 6,000 BC to modern times, second was Industrial, the third is
IT
Information
Technology which is already our biggest business. IT, computers and
telecommunication is bigger than transportation, construction even government.
The reason for
growth without inflation is the major shift in the means of production and
distribution. Traditional economic models based on physical assets and goods (
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, wholesale and retail ) factory utilization,
inventory miss the changing picture of reality. Even
The Federal
Reserve ( Greenspan ) has noticed the shift in economic activity.
They feel
productivity of IT is having a important effect but aren't sure how IT effects
the basic economic structure.
The means of
production are now intellectual, value is distribution by services such as
educational, medical, financial, design, media, telecommunications, electrical,
and involve global relationships.
The shift is from
"objects" to "forms", from things to concepts and ideas. A
big shift, example, best explained by Fritjoe
Capra in physics and Kevin Kelly in Biology Living.htm see also futures.htm
MISSION :
The mission of the
synergy network is to explore the range of
IT
- Information
Technology.
The special talent
of the human species is
IT
Information Transfer -
The CATCH-ON factor (Allen Wilson).
Skills training started with better tools in stone, in metal, in hunting
and fishing. With agriculture knowledge came organizational ability - SYNERGY -
getting more from the group than the sum of the parts.
The MARS adventure
is a wonderful example of team work, communications, shared hopes and benefits.
SOMEHOW the internet should add to synergy, see packets,
to the numbers who catch-on.
IT
has always taken more than just information.
has always taken more than just information.
There has to be an
emotional base, ability to change - to see in new ways - to be open to new
experiences.
There are enought
clues on the Wiredbrain for those who are
interested. Those who are not interested there is no way of meaningful
communications. PATHOS = caring - having the interest
and doing something. What we value is what we do, not what we say. LOGOS = information, knowledge - the
subject itself. ETHOS = what do we do with
? KNOWLEDGE = information + understanding, being a different person doing
things in a different style.
The human synergy
shortage in
IT,
*
is costing companies about $660 billion a year.
The Synergy site
style is designed to conform and reinforce the learning systems of
IT. For
example:
This book is
an example, a process, not a finished product of today's most important story , and about how Communications technology ,
and living systems and are critical new ideas such as:
The networks rising in the Far West ( East )
http://www.excite.com
THE NOISE on packets.htm for now technology
Netscape, Oracle, IBM, SunMicrosystems and Everyone else ( Corel, Novell )
see "Internet technologies are creating an opportunity for new
"information utilities," but no one yet knows what they will look
like, Eric Schmidt, chairman and chief executive of networking firm Novell
(NOVL) said in a speech this morning at Summer Internet World.
We are not at the end, but at the beginning of this journey," Schmidt said
referring to the evolution of the Web. "We have a name, the Web, but we
may not have a destination" CNET NEWS
We are not at the end, but at the beginning of this journey," Schmidt said referring to the evolution of the Web. "We have a name, the Web, but we may not have a destination" CNET NEWS
The spirit in the
world "deus ex machina",
C/net
We now put the GWP at about $ 37 trillion global economy
A Share of Global Income Over Time
Year Richest 20% Poorest 20% Ratio of Rich/Poor
We now put the GWP at about $ 37 trillion global economy
A Share of Global Income Over Time
Year Richest 20% Poorest 20% Ratio of Rich/Poor
1960 70.2 2.3
30:1
1970 73.9 2.3
32:1
1980 76.3 1.7
45:1
1989 82.7 1.4
59:1
In 1960 the
richest fifth of the world's population received 70% of global income compared
to 2.3% for the world's poorest 20%. By 1989 the richest 20% had increased
their share to 82.7% while the bottom fifth saw their share of global income
shrink from 2.3% to 1.4%.6 In Brazil the richest 20% earn 28 times as much as
the poorest 20%. In the US from 1977-89 the average real income of the top 1%
increased by 78% while the poorest 20% of the population saw their income
decrease by 10.4% A big shift. see networks.htm
http://www.ecdpm.org/ni/issue278/facts.html
http://www.ecdpm.org/ni/issue278/facts.html
